MiddayUpdate 11/21/11: More Heavy Rain Coming

Kentucky Mesonet Rainfall Amounts since Midnight (through 11:30am)

The rain continues to fall over Southern Kentucky.  Even though we’re seeing a little break in the action at Midday there will be more heavy rain potential tonight and again Tuesday.

We’ve seen nearly 8-tenths of an inch of rain in Bowling Green since midnight with many other locations already over an inch.

Flooding has not been an issue in Southern Kentucky thus far thanks to the various “waves” the rains have moved.  If these heavy rains had been continuously steady it might be a different story.

A cold front is stalled over the region and will continue to sit still tonight as another wave of low pressure moves along the front.  This will bring back more heavy rainfall overnight along with a few thunderstorms.

WBKO's StormCondition Index

The front is stationary now but will begin to move eastward tomorrow evening.  Ahead of the front, instability will increase as we go from one round of storms tomorrow morning – followed by a break – then a second, stronger round of storms into the late afternoon and evening.

During the break between tomorrow morning and tomorrow evening we could see some sunshine break through which could destabilize the atmosphere even more.  Should this happen, the threat for severe storms is almost a sure bet as the cold front moves through.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed almost all of Kentucky under a SLIGHT RISK for severe storms tomorrow with a 30% risk of those storms becoming severe over Southern Kentucky.  We have issued a StormCon Index of 3 for tomorrow afternoon and evening for this threat.  The possible impacts from these storms would be damaging winds, large hail, heavy rains and even some isolated tornadoes.

Continue to monitor changing weather conditions the next 24 hours and prepare now for the possibility we could be in for strong to severe storms by Tuesday afternoon.

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