Looking Ahead: Halloween Storm Or Not?

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European forecast model showing potential for strong wind shear with an advancing storm system by next Friday.
European forecast model showing potential for strong wind shear with an advancing storm system by next Friday.

I can tell you (as I have told you many times before), long-range forecasting is nothing to put money on.

People are wanting to know about trick-or-treating and the talk around the weather circles of some stormy weather on the 31st. That certainly looks to be a possibility but there is on-going disagreement amongst the forecast models.

One thing does appear to be likely…a strong storm system that will traverse across the Central Plains and into the middle Mississippi Valley starting next week. Pieces of energy look to advance ahead of that system which would bring us a chance of rain and some thunderstorm activity as a southerly flow kicks temperatures back into the 60s.

The latest long-range model run shows the main cold front slowing down. With the amount of wind shear, warm surge and advancing moisture, we could be looking at potential severe weather to our west and a heavy rain event for us.

The graphic above shows the amount of shear winds associated with the system. In other words, how the winds will change direction and speed with altitude. It clearly shows an active system which (if all holds true) would put us in line for stormy weather with strong winds the day after Halloween or next Friday, November 1st.

Shane, Stephanie and I will continue to watch the progression of this system over the coming days knowing a lot could change. A reminder, Fall is what we often refer to as our “second severe weather season” so it pays to “know the weather BEFORE it knows you”

 

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