Mainly clear to partly cloudy this morning. Watch for isolated slick spots around the area from yesterday’s rain and overnight lows below freezing.
DRYING OUT…THEN WARMING UP
We were reminded Tuesday that Winter is here with some places seeing a little wet snow on the back end of rain that fell overnight into early morning. The warm, wet ground prevented most of the snow from sticking. Chillier temperatures moved in overnight with lows just below or near freezing. Otherwise, today looks good with a mix of clouds and sunshine returning. It will be chilly though with highs only in the lower 40s.
FINAL DAYS OF 2011…
Milder weather returns by Thursday along with breezy southwest winds at 15-30 mph. With partly to mostly sunny skies expected, look for highs to top out in the 50s each day Thursday through New Years Eve (Saturday), with lows mainly in the 30s.
THE NEW YEAR BRINGS…
A chance for some light rain showers Sunday, followed by a cooldown Monday into Tuesday. Highs will fall from the mild 50s Sunday into the colder lower 40s Monday into Tuesday. Some long range forecast models indicate we could be looking at our first real Arctic plunge by the middle of next week.
Partly Sunny, Chilly…High 42, winds W-6
Mainly Clear and Chilly…Low 31, winds SW-8
Mostly Sunny, Breezy & Warmer…High 53, winds SW 15-30
Occasional light to moderate rain continues across Southern Kentucky. Watch for ponding water on area roadways.
RAIN TO SNOW…BUT HOW MUCH?
Overnight, rainfall amounts have ranged from .25 to .50″ with some locations picking up an additional .75″. As an area of low pressure moves through the region today the rain may mix with or change to a period of wet, slushy snow. However, snow accumulations are not expected except for a few grassy areas and less traveled roads mainly north and northwest of Bowling Green. Winds will be quite breezy today from the northwest at 15-30 mph.
FINAL DAYS OF 2011…
Wednesday will be partly sunny and cool with daytime highs in the lower 40s. Through the rest of the week, temperatures will slowly warm before reaching the upper 50s by Friday. Overnight temperatures will be in the upper 20s and the lower 30s for the second half of the week.
THE NEW YEAR BRINGS…
Rain for January 1st with highs in the low 50s. A cold front will pass through Sunday night bringing a cooler Monday with highs in the mid 40s.
Rainy, Breezy, Afternoon Rain/Snow Mix…High 43, winds NW-15
Precip Chance 100% – Rain Amount .25″ – Snow Amount less than a dusting
Becoming Partly Cloudy…Low 28, winds NW-5
Mostly Sunny…High 42, winds W-6
Cloudy with rain moving in from our south this morning. Some of the rain could be moderate to heavy at times.
CAN’T SHAKE THE RAIN…
After a brief drying out, rain is moving back into the area this morning and will cover the region today with most places seeing .75-1.00″ before ending tonight. Temperatures will be in the upper 40s to near 50 degrees. Friday will be a dry day with some sun returning to Southern Kentucky.
Saturday looks to be partly sunny but with a weak disturbance moving through late in the day some light rain and possible wintry mix for Christmas Eve. This is a small chance, and most areas will remain dry for Saturday night, which means no white Christmas for 2011. Both Saturday and Sunday afternoon highs will be in the mid 40s with partly sunny skies.
Quiet and seasonably cool weather is expected Monday through Wednesday, with highs both days in the 40s.
Rain Likely… High 50, winds NW-6
Precip Chance 100% – Rain Amount .75-.1.00″
Rain Ending…Low 38, winds NW-6
Precip Chance 20% – Rain Amount .10″
Partly Sunny and Cool…High 47, winds N-5
As you can see from this NOAA forecast map, the probability of seeing a “White Christmas” here in Southern Kentucky is only about 10% or less.
Of course, this could change between now and Saturday but we only have a slight 20% chance of seeing some light rain or snow showers Christmas Eve night as a disturbance kicks out of the desert southwest and into the Plains.
Temperatures will be in the mid 40s Saturday and Sunday with overnight lows dipping to around freezing (32°) Saturday night when the chance of precipitation is in our forecast. The lack of abundant moisture, the warmer temperatures and the track of the system will keep us from seeing measurable snow this time…unlike last year when we woke to around 4-inches of snow Christmas morning 2010.
Today is the last full day of Autumn with the Winter Solstice beginning at 11:30pm central time tonight. The first full day of Winter will feature a 100% chance of rain across the region.
Rain showers will continue to push east of I-65 with occasional heavy downpours and gusty winds. Some clearing will begin west of I-65 this morning.
Showers moved through yesterday with only light amounts of rainfall for most. Even heavier rain pushed through this morning with amounts from one-tenth to a half inch in some cases. We’ll start unseasonably warm this morning but temperatures will drop through the 50s this afternoon before some sun returns for a short time. Our chance to dry out is brief, though as yet another system moving in for Thursday means more rain is in the offing. Rainfall could be heavy once again with this system pulling out of the Gulf. Temperatures will cool down some later in the week but will remain above seasonal averages. Friday appears dry and cool.
Another disturbance moves in for Saturday, spreading more clouds and precip into the area. It won’t be all that cold, but cold enough that the precip could fall as a mix of light rain and wet snow late Saturday (Christmas Eve) into Sunday morning (Christmas Day). However, snow amounts continue to look light at this time. Highs will top out in the 40s both days.
Quiet and seasonably cool weather is expected Monday and Tuesday, with highs both days in the 40s.
Rain Ending, Becoming Mostly Sunny…High 63, winds W-15
Mostly Cloudy and Cooler…Low 42, winds SE-4
Rain Likely…High 51, winds NE-6
Precip Chance 100% – Rain Amount .50-.75″
It’s been a while but we could see strong to severe storms in portions of the WBKO viewing area late this afternoon and into this evening.
A slow moving cold front is parked to our west while a surge of Gulf moisture and strong, shearing winds are providing the necessary ingredients for rain and thunderstorms…some of which could become rotating storms with the potential for damaging winds.
For that reason, we’re going to issue a StormCon Index of 2 for late this afternoon and evening across much of South Central Kentucky. This means there is a 2-in-10 chance that any thunderstorm that develops could produce damaging winds and possibly even a weak tornado.
While the tornado threat is lowest here in Southern Kentucky, there is a 10% chance of tornadoes mainly along and north of the Ohio River into Southern Indiana and Southwest Ohio.
As you can see from the SPC graphic above, the areas from near Dayton, OH southwest into Indianapolis to near Evansville are in that 10% probability zone.
While all the ingredients necessary for severe storms are available, it’s all a matter of timing and if any surface instability can come into play during the afternoon and evening hours. If we see a lot of sun breaking through the clouds today, our severe weather probabilities will be elevated a little higher. However, if we can keep the sky mostly cloudy with very little sunshine, our severe weather threat will be lower.
Stay connected to WBKO and WBKO.com on your PC and smartphone with text alerts, interactive radar and further updates on this potential severe weather situation.
What better time to think about the safety and security of your loved ones than the holidays.
And we have the perfect gift…a weather radio!
For a small investment of around $30 (depending on the model) and a few batteries, you can have a programmable, alert-ready weather radio to warn a friend or family member wherever they may be!
For the past 7 years, WBKO and the First Alert Storm Team has been in partnership with Midland Radio – the leading manufacturer of all-hazards radios – to bring the significance of having a NOAA Weather Radio as part of an overall personal preparedness plan.
This Saturday, me, Shane and Stephanie will be at the new Walgreens in Leitchfield from 10am to Noon. If you’re in Leitchfield, Grayson County or surrounding areas, this will be your best opportunity to purchase either the desktop model or new portable hand-held radio and have them programmed by us on the spot!
We will be hitting some other newer Walgreens locations in the coming weeks such as the one in Russellville on November 12th and the new Bowling Green store on Scottsville Road at Shive Lane on November 19th.
November is thought of as a “second season” for tornadoes in our part of the country so it not only pays to have a NOAA Weather Radio as a gift to give someone this holiday season but to have ready at your home or office…not “if”, but “when” severe weather strikes.
These radios are programmable so you are only warned for the county or counties that you select. We will be there Saturday from 10am to Noon to assist you with the programming process.
We hope to see you Saturday in Leitchfield!
A huge congratulations to John Gordon, the Meteorologist in Charge at the Louisville National Weather Service office for being awarded the “Public Education Award” at the National Weather Association Conference in Birmingham last week for his “Beat The Heat, Check The Backseat” campaign. In addition, students from Western Kentucky University presented a poster of “A Synoptic Hydroclimatology within the Green River Watershed in Kentucky”.
You can click the link above and see picture and video highlights of these presentations. It’s great to do weather in a state where all facets of meteorology are well represented on a national level!
My head hurts.
It could be from the abrupt change in the temperature from Birmingham to Bowling Green but it’s probably more from the depth of information my brain soaked in this week at the 36th Annual National Weather Association Conference.
As I mentioned in one of my earlier posts from this week, this has been a week of learning from Mother Nature. We all agree that no matter how much we think we know, there is still much to learn. Mysteries remain from the incredible tornado outbreaks of April and May. However, the data that was gathered will go a long way in helping those of us in broadcast meteorology better prepare you for the next outbreak.
The compelling videos, the detailed PowerPoint slides and the chilling recount from those that lived through those killer tornadoes all got to me. And I can attest that TV doesn’t do it justice. Even six months later, there are parts of Alabama…not just Tuscaloosa and Birmingham…that remain in ruin from the EF4 and EF5 tornadoes.
Many of us who do TV weather took time from the comfort of the hotel meeting rooms to venture out to places such as Tuscaloosa, Bessemer, Fultondale and Cullman. When you stand amidst the rubble and easily visualize the path of the tornadoes, you get a cold chill. In some places, only slabs of homes and businesses remain while others either stand condemned or just a shell of what they once were.
Granted, the majority of the affected towns are untouched and life goes on as usual. But the lines of destruction are clearly marked…as if crossing into another dimension…the look of everything changes. You begin to see signs of promise like “We’re Coming Back!” and “You Can’t Keep Us Down”. Driving through some of the neighborhoods in Tuscaloosa you peer through the windows where families are repainting and repairing all they can. I tried putting myself in their position and I can’t even begin to imagine all they’ve been through. Six months later, the storm is still very real.
Being there – where the tornadoes struck – taught me more than any class ever could. Still, there are so many things I still don’t know…we still don’t know. This gathering was more than a bunch of weather geeks getting together and talking shop. It was a learning experience.
It was another jam-packed day at the 36th Annual National Weather Association Conference in Birmingham, Alabama. Today, I learned a lot about “Dual-Polarization Radar” that will soon be installed at the Nashville NWS office in January and later in Louisville and other NWS offices across the country. It’s called “Dual-Pol” for short and introduces the next-generation of radar imaging being implemented by the National Weather Service and then passed on to TV stations (like WBKO).
Dual-Pol radar will allow us to see severe storms like never before. It will do a much better job at determining hail size and hail cores…often a precursor to tornado formation. Not only this, but WBKO is in line to do a full weather graphics system overhaul which will not only allow us to ingest LIVE Dual-Pol radar but will move our weather into full HD mode in the coming months! During my time here in Birmingham, the folks from WeatherCentral, the company that developed the weather graphics you see on all of our TV and web content have been here training me on some exciting new software and providing me with better weather tools than ever before.
The highlight of the day was the Annual NWA Awards Luncheon where the leadership of the organization hand out awards to those who have served the NWA in many capacities over the past year. The NWA was responsible for me achieving my Broadcast Seal of Approval in 1999 and I attend the Conference every three years to be re-certified.
Today, we had the pleasure of Storm Tracker Jim Cantore of The Weather Channel sit with us at our table. In fact, many familiar faces from The Weather Channel have been in attendance at the NWA Conference all this week such as Nick Walker, Vivian Brown, Mike Bettes and Dr. Greg Forbes.
Tomorrow is the final day of the NWA Conference. I will have another half-day of sessions to go through then Shelia and I will be taking a few days off just to relax.
My brain is on overload but I will be coming back to Southern Kentucky with lots of new knowledge and a better perspective (and appreciation) for severe weather and just what it can do to a community.
(Miss me yet?)
I miss y’all. G’night!