The airmass over Kentucky seems to be stabilizing thanks to clouds and an on-going MCS (mesoscale convective system) that’s rolling through parts of Mississippi and Alabama at the noon hour.
With higher stability numbers – despite lots of sunshine – it appears that any storms that fire ahead of a cold front this afternoon should stay under severe limits even though a few could be strong.
A better chance of rain and thunderstorms exists tonight as the cold front moves through the area. There may be some heavy downpours along with lightning and gusty winds but the SPC says any severe weather threat now appears limited or marginal at best.
The latest severe weather outlook from the SPC (Storm Prediction Center) shows a SLIGHT risk for severe storms this evening over southeast Tennessee, northern Mississippi, northern Alabama and northwestern Georgia. The outlook area goes as far north as Nashville and almost meets with the Kentucky border to our east along the Cumberland Plateau.
Bowling Green and Southern Kentucky are in the “general risk” area which means there could be a few strong storms overnight as warm, moist air and a warm front moves across the area.
While there is not a huge tornado threat with this system, there is always a risk with any severe storms and the wind shear environment that will be setting up. Notice the “2% probability” area does cross into the Cumberland Plateau.
Speaking of winds, the SPC believes the greater potential for any storm to produce damaging winds is mainly confined to the overall risk area further south but a “5% probability” exists with any storms that are over Southern and Southeastern Kentucky tonight.
With cold air aloft (which will result in more wintry weather to our north), a few of the stronger storms may produce small hail tonight. The probability is at 5%.
After Tuesday’s historic outbreak of 9 tornadoes in Kentucky and Indiana, I’m happy to see the SPC taking a more pro-active approach to this storm system and the one coming in for Sunday night. They were way off target on Tuesday. This is why it’s a good idea…no matter what the calendar says…to be prepared for severe weather anytime.
- Get a NOAA Weather Radio.
- Have more than one way to monitor the weather.
- Prepare a place of shelter where you and your family can stay safe.
- Never assume it won’t hit you.
This holiday weekend is going to be one to remember for those living along the Gulf Coast.
As you can see, millions living in the southern parishes of Louisiana through southern Mississippi into the tip of southern Alabama and the Florida panhandle look to be affected by flooding rains of at least 8-10 inches. Some areas in the southernmost reaches of Louisiana…including the greater New Orleans area may see 15 inches or more of rain as the tropical depression slowly crawls across the region.
You will also notice with this latest update we’re beginning to see better chances for rain as the system moves slowly into central Alabama by Wednesday morning and possibly into middle Tennessee by Wednesday night and Thursday. Should this track hold true, Southern Kentucky may finally see some beneficial soaking rains as we close out next week.
Again, this is all still very preliminary but we’ll continue to track this over the coming days.