As of 5am, Isaac is still at Tropical Storm strength but is forecast to become a minimal Hurricane later today, if not this morning. It is still forecast to make landfall sometime late tonight or early Wednesday morning near New Orleans with wind potential near 100 mph at times along with a storm surge of 6-8 feet.
Mainly cloudy this morning with a leftover light rain shower or sprinkle – especially east of I-65.
MAINLY DRY THROUGH MIDWEEK:
A weak cold front is easing through our area bringing with it some scattered light rain showers. The front may linger over eastern sections long enough to spark off an isolated thundershower near Lake Cumberland. Most of us will be dry however with highs topping out near 90°. Somewhat less humid air filters in tonight into Wednesday allowing for cooler overnight lows under mainly clear skies even though afternoons will still be quite warm.
All eyes will be on Isaac as it moves inland over the Gulf Coast Wednesday and is projected to slowly move northward up the Mississippi River Valley Thursday into Friday. At this time, the official forecast track from the National Hurricane Center keeps what will be the remnant low of Isaac going west of South-Central KY through Missouri into Illinois. Such a track would mean at least scattered showers and storms for our area through Labor Day weekend. However, a track farther east would bring heavier, more widespread rain to our region. Either way, it looks unsettled for the holiday weekend at this time, with storm chances in the forecast from Friday all the way into Labor Day itself. We’ll continue to fine tune the weekend forecast as new information is received.
Showers East, then Becoming Sunny…High 90, winds NE-7
Precip Chance: 20% Rain Amount: .05″
Mainly Clear, Areas of Patchy Fog…Low 63, winds Calm
Mainly Sunny and Warm…High 90, winds NE-7
The latest on Tropical Storm Isaac as of 5am this morning shows the storm with winds at 65 mph and moving just southwest of Tampa. The National Hurricane Center continues to move the ultimate track further west with a potential landfall sometime early Wednesday morning near the mouth of the Mississippi River outside of New Orleans as a category 1 storm with winds estimated at 90 mph along with gusts of 100 mph. Inland flooding and the threat for tornadoes appears to be the biggest threat with Isaac when it makes landfall along the Gulf Coast. For us in SOKY, a potential heavy rain event is possible starting Thursday night and lasting through the weekend but much depends on Isaac’s ultimate track.
Partly cloudy this morning with a few scattered showers developing to our west.
A cold front will begin to work through the region today with partly sunny skies and the possibility of scattered thunderstorms. Any storms should be well below severe limits as afternoon temperatures reach the upper 80s. Rain chances will still linger for Tuesday as the front exits our region and temperatures return into the lower 90s under mostly sunny skies Wednesday.
At this time, it appears that SOKY could be impacted by tropical moisture from Isaac beginning Thursday night. As the remnants move through the SE, some models are showing our region picking up between 2 and 4″ of rain before the end of the week. This would be a rain event only for us as the storm will be drastically weakened at this point. For now, it appears Thursday through next Sunday will be mostly cloudy with scattered rains showers and daytime highs in the mid 80s. However, it is important to note that this is not set in stone and ultimately depends on the final direction the storm moves once it makes landfall. We will keep you up to date as the information becomes more clear.
Partly Sunny, Chance of Thunderstorms… High 89, winds SW-8
Precip Chance: 40% Rain Amount: .20″
Chance of Showers and Thunderstorms…Low 69, winds Calm
Precip Chance: 30% Rain Amount: .10″
Morning Showers, then Partly Cloudy…High 88, winds NE-6
Precip Chance: 20% Rain Amount: .05″
Friday we reached 101°.
Today we reached 100°.
Big changes are coming to South Central Kentucky thanks to a season-changing cold front and remnants of what is currently Tropical Storm Lee.
As the latest Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) graphic above shows you, we’re finally looking at some decent rainfall amounts moving in thanks to both the cold front and the tropical system. Already, we are seeing the outer cloud bands of Tropical Storm Lee – along with a few isolated showers – moving through this afternoon. If you check the radar, you’ll notice these showers are moving in a southeast to northwest fashion. It’s a bit unusual but typical on the north side of any tropical system.
Our first best chance for rain will actually come with a cold front…a real COLD front this time…that will begin to influence our weather later tonight. Rain chances start at 20% tonight with a few showers expected mainly west of Bowling Green but will overspread the area during the day on Sunday. We’ll increase the chance of rain to 50% Sunday and up to 70% Sunday night as the front begins moving across South Central Kentucky. There will be a few thunderstorms but we’re not expecting severe weather. Rainfall amounts on Sunday are expected to be around 1/2 inch to 3/4 of an inch.
By Sunday evening the cold front slowly pushes through South Central Kentucky with a 70% chance of rain and thunderstorms while Tropical Storm Lee barely moves just north of New Orleans into southern Mississippi.
By Labor Day morning the cold front begins to slow down even more thanks to the energy from Tropical Storm Lee. We could pick up another 1/2 inch to one inch of rain from the combination of systems. In addition, cooler winds from the north behind the front will make for a breezy day with high temperatures only in the low to mid 70s. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Lee will get caught up in the front and begin to pick up some forward momentum as it moves into Central Mississippi.
By Tuesday, Tropical Storm Lee may downgrade to a Tropical Depression but will still throw down some heavy rains and occasionally gusty winds to Eastern Mississippi and Central Alabama. We will continue to see a 40-50% chance of rain here in South Central Kentucky along with a cool and breezy north wind.
By Wednesday afternoon, the depression will move to near Chattanooga and then to near Pikeville by Thursday. We will hang on to a 20-40% chance of showers as long as the remnants of Lee are near us.
All in all, we’re looking at a total of 1.75 to 2.50″ inches of rain from the combination of the cold front and Lee. The combination of clouds, rainfall and a north wind behind the cold front will bring us some of the coolest temperatures we’ve felt around here in a long while. We’ll go from around 89° for a high on Sunday to the mid 70s Labor Day and mid to upper 70s for much of next week. Overnight lows will drop from the low 70s into the 50s.
This holiday weekend is going to be one to remember for those living along the Gulf Coast.
As you can see, millions living in the southern parishes of Louisiana through southern Mississippi into the tip of southern Alabama and the Florida panhandle look to be affected by flooding rains of at least 8-10 inches. Some areas in the southernmost reaches of Louisiana…including the greater New Orleans area may see 15 inches or more of rain as the tropical depression slowly crawls across the region.
You will also notice with this latest update we’re beginning to see better chances for rain as the system moves slowly into central Alabama by Wednesday morning and possibly into middle Tennessee by Wednesday night and Thursday. Should this track hold true, Southern Kentucky may finally see some beneficial soaking rains as we close out next week.
Again, this is all still very preliminary but we’ll continue to track this over the coming days.