SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR ENTIRE WBKO VIEWING AREA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT
EARLY MORNING NOWCAST:
Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible along with breezy southwest winds.
6am: Cloudy, Isolated Showers 59°
8am: Cloudy, Scattered Showers 62°
10am: Cloudy, Scattered Showers 65°
A WINDY, STORMY THURSDAY:
Today’s weather will be VERY active to say the least. We expect multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms to affect the area. The first round of scattered showers with a few rumbles of thunder comes this morning with a warm front passing through. Severe storms are not expected with this first round. As the day progresses, expect mostly cloudy, windy, and warm conditions. Afternoon temperatures may flirt with record territory in the low to mid 70s! But that daytime heating may result in a more unstable atmosphere when the second round of storms arrives later today.
A powerful cold front will sweep through the region this evening. Expect an organized line of storms to develop ahead of it. Some of the storms within the line will be capable of producing locally damaging winds of 60-70 mph. Torrential downpours are also likely, and isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out. The main threat for severe weather comes between 3-6pm for locations west of I-65, around 6-7pm for Bowling Green and along I-65, and between 7-10pm for areas east of the interstate. Be aware of rapidly changing conditions, especially late afternoon into early evening. Stay connected to WBKO, WBKO.com and the WBKO app as we track this powerful system.
We dry out Friday, with temperatures remaining mild through the early part of the weekend. A cold front eases through Sunday morning, sending temperatures down to more seasonal levels to close out the weekend.
WINTER NOT OVER YET:
Much colder air returns early next week, with below normal temperatures through the period. There is a slight chance for rain or snow Tuesday morning.
Windy & Warm. Strong Late Day Storms…High 75, winds S 24-44mph
Precip Chance: 90% – Amount: 0.50″
Breezy with Strong Thunderstorms…Low 37, winds W-18
Precip Chance: 100% – Amount: 0.75″
Sunny and Cooler…High 54, winds SW-12
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR ENTIRE WBKO VIEWING AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
EARLY MORNING NOWCAST:
Showers and thunderstorms will move out of the viewing area followed by clearing west to east.
6am: Clearing 51°
8am: Mostly Sunny 50°
10am: Mostly Sunny 52°
STORMS END, SUN RETURNS:
It’s been a while but many of us were awakened by the sound of thunder early this morning. A weak disturbance moved through bringing some Spring-like thunderstorms which are now moving away. We’ll dry out this morning with a mix of sun and clouds expected today. We stay warm, with highs near 60.
STRONG STORMS THURSDAY:
Our next system arrives Thursday, and it looks quite potent. It will be packing plenty of wind/jet stream energy along with abundant moisture. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely with this system. The first round is expected early in the day, with the second (and stronger) round coming late in the day. At this time, it appears an organized line of storms will march through the entire area between 3pm-9pm Thursday. Some storms within that line may be capable of producing locally damaging winds, with isolated tornadoes and hail also possible. It will be a very windy, warm day, with near record high temperatures in the low to mid 70s before the cold front arrives in the evening. Stay connected to WBKO and wbko.com as we track this powerful system.
We dry out Friday, with temperatures remaining mild through the early part of the weekend. By early next week, colder readings make a comeback, with a chance for rain or snow showing up Tuesday.
Partly Sunny, Continued Warm… High 61, winds SE-6
Cloudy & Breezy, Thunderstorms After Midnight…Low 48, winds S-13
Precip Chance: 30% – Amount: 0.10″
AM Storms, then Breezy with Strong Late Day Storms…High 75, S-24
Precip Chance: 80% – Amount: 0.50″
EARLY MORNING NOWCAST:
Watch for areas of fog which may reduce visibility and cause icy spots where temperatures are below freezing.
6am: Mostly Cloudy/Fog 29°
8am: Mostly Cloudy/Fog 35°
10am: Mostly Cloudy 44°
RAIN ON THE WAY:
Presidents Day will be marked by scattered rain showers and warm temperatures in the low to mid 50s. Most areas will see .25-.50″ of rain. It will also be breezy at times – even a rumble of thunder is possible – as a cold front sweeps through the region. We will stay dry for Tuesday as we sit between two weather makers. Daytime highs will be in the low to mid 50s.
A TASTE OF SPRING!
Late Wednesday more rain will move in from the west, with rain chances increasing Wednesday night into Thursday. Daytime temperatures will soar into the upper 60s during this time frame, and it also appears there could be some thunderstorms with this next system as we feel the influence of a more “Spring-like” weather pattern. Things dry out for Friday, but it appears a weekend weather-maker will cool temperatures back down into the upper 40s for next Sunday.
Warm & Breezy, Afternoon Rain Likely… High 56, winds SW-15
Precip Chance: 80% – Amount: 0.25-.50″
Rain Ending, then Partly Cloudy… Low 33, winds SW-4
Precip Chance: 20% – Amount: 0.05″
Mostly Sunny and Warm…High 58, winds SW-6
Mainly cloudy, breezy and colder with occasional flurries.
8am: Mainly Cloudy/Flurries 28°
10am: Mainly Cloudy/Flurries 29°
12Noon: Mainly Cloudy/Flurries 32°
A cold front moved through Tuesday evening bringing a band of rain showers along with it. As upper level energy trailing this front swings through this morning, snow showers will become possible with readings diving into the upper 20s. While nothing more than a light dusting is possible with these snow showers, a few slick spots may develop on some roads. Snow showers diminish later today but blustery northwest winds will bring a chill to the air. Highs only reach the low 30s with wind chills dipping into the teens! Tonight looks dry but cold.
MORE COLD TO END THE WEEK:
Another shot of very cold air dives into South-Central KY for Friday! This could bring us more snow showers to close out the week. Highs Friday will only reach the lower 30s with upper teens Friday night. Slowly moderating temperatures are forecast for the weekend into Martin Luther King, Jr. Day (Monday), along with dry conditions.
Breezy & Colder, Chance of Snow Flurries…High 32, winds NW-14
Precip Ch. 30% – Rain Amount 0.03″
A dusting of snow accumulation possible
Partly Cloudy and Cold…Low 22, winds S-6
Increasing Clouds, Afternoon Rain to Snow…High 43, winds SW-15
Precip Ch. 30% – Rain Amount 0.03″
A look at radar at 8:14 this morning shows scattered showers with brief downpours occurring. Much of the activity is moving east of I-65. So far, no thunderstorms have been detected. Our day is starting windy and warm with temperatures in the 50s.
The morning Futurecast map for 10am shows scattered showers will continue today with maybe a few brief downpours but nothing serious. Of course, the winds will continue to kick up from the south and southwest at 15-25, even 30 mph at times.
The Futurecast map for 10pm tonight shows a tapering off of some of the scattered shower activity while heavier rains and thunderstorms ramp up to our west. We will begin to see heavier rain pick up for a time tonight – especially west of I-65. No severe storms are forecast tonight, just general rumbles of thunder with the possibility of some drenching downpours.
Overnight is when we will begin to see many of the Flood Watches and Advisories go up “officially” and as you can see, they are pretty widespread. There is a warm and a cold side to this massive storm system and we will stay on the warm side of things for the duration of the weekend. While the Flood Watch takes up only the western third of the WBKO viewing area as of this writing, it could be further extended east as we go through the day. Further north and northwest (the cold side), there are numerous Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Watches. If you’re planning to travel north or west of St. Louis, look for snow and ice to become a major issue throughout the weekend.
Saturday begins with a line of intense rain and strong thunderstorms just to our west as a second impulse of low pressure rides along a stalled frontal boundary. That slow movement will lead to drenching downpours and torrential rains mainly west of I-65 for the first half of Saturday. Some of you east of I-65 and along the Cumberland Plateau may not even see that much rain for the first part of the day. In fact, if enough sun energy bleeds through the clouds, this will cause a rise in instability which may lead to stronger storms later in the day. Therefore…
…the Storm Prediction Center has placed ALL of the WBKO viewing area (and beyond) under a SLIGHT RISK for severe storms Saturday afternoon and evening. While the primary threat area looks to be west of I-65, that added instability I just mentioned will slowly move east into Saturday evening putting all of our viewers under the threat for potentially damaging winds, flooding rains and even a few brief, short-lived tornado “spin-ups” as we have seen before with these kind of systems. It will be in the form of a quasi-linear “line” of storms that can bow out at certain points causing a tornado or two. However, the overall tornado threat is not very high and much of that depends on any sun we get on Saturday.
As we have discussed here, on TV and my podcast over the last few days, rainfall is going to be the biggest impact from this system for Southern Kentucky. Again, the rainfall forecast map shows that we are in a “split” between very heavy rain to the west of I-65 with lighter amounts to the east. With the slow propagation of the cold front, this will cause creeks, streams and rivers to rise above bank full to the west with amounts of 3-4″ while 2-3″ rains are certainly possible in and around the Bowling Green area Saturday into Sunday. Low water fords and some back roads will certainly become flooded over the weekend and even into early next week.
By Saturday night, the second impulse of low pressure will be passing to our north and the stalled front will begin to move eastward…slowly. Some of the heaviest rain for those along and east of I-65 will take place then begin to subside early Sunday. Colder air will move in as well dropping our temperatures by Sunday afternoon into the 40s, then into the 30s but the best moisture will be gone by the time the cold air arrives…therefore, we are not looking for any winter weather with this system here in Southern Kentucky.
The long range forecast still calls for a quiet but “snow free” Christmas here. Highs will be in the mid 30s Christmas Eve but will warm into the upper 40s by Christmas Day. Some rain will move in for Thursday.
We will do our best to keep you up to date on the weather situation throughout the weekend. Just download our WBKO app from the App Store or Google Play and you will see radar and the latest forecasts. Stephanie Midgett will be here with any live updates if they become necessary. Be sure and have your NOAA weather radio turned on just in case warnings are issued. If you’re leaving out of town for the holiday, have a blessed Christmas time with your family and friends, drive safe and KTWBIKY!
The setup has already begun for what promises to be a rather soggy weekend across much of the Ohio and Tennessee Valley region – even beyond!
The current picture is pretty tranquil. No weather worries today as sunshine prevails on the west side of a big high pressure ridge. Southerly winds will become breezy at 15-25 mph this afternoon as high clouds approach ahead of the big weekend system. Highs will reach around 60° this afternoon.
The surface map for Friday shows the first impulse of low pressure riding along a slow moving cold front. With high pressure now off in the Atlantic, the Gulf of Mexico is “open for business” and will send an abundant moisture feed into the mid-South region. Primarily, we’re looking at scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms around Southern Kentucky/Middle Tennessee for Friday. Wind will continue to be breezy at 15-25 mph at times.
FRIDAY’S WEATHER IMPACT: Breezy winds 15-25 mph, scattered thunderstorms.
This simulated radar composite shows the scattered nature of the rain on Friday with rainfall amounts anywhere from .10″-.25″ by afternoon. Any heavy rainfall will come overnight Friday with the arrival of the next impulse of low pressure. Highs will reach well into the mid 60s which is 15-20° above average!
The potential for the heaviest rainfall will come Saturday for the region. Based on the latest model guidance, Southern Kentucky/Northern Middle Tennessee look to gain anywhere from 2-3″ of rain with continual rounds of thunderstorms producing torrential downpours. This may cause some flash flooding issues along swelling creeks, streams and rivers. Already, Flood Watches have been posted west of our region and are likely to be posted in our area some time in the next 24 hours.
SATURDAY’S WEATHER IMPACTS: Drenching downpours/possible flooding. Strong Storms. Gusty Winds.
While Southern Kentucky/Northern Middle Tennessee is not currently under a “risk” for severe storms, this map could change as we get new model runs and get a better fix on where the best instability for strong/severe storms may exist on Saturday. Right now, that area is further southwest of us. If you’re planning to travel this weekend, stay alert for the possibility of severe storms, even a few tornadoes in the Central and Southern parts of the Mississippi River Valley.
Further north will be the “winter” side of this storm system with snow and ice from Southern Michigan through northern Indiana, Illinois and Missouri. West of the Mississippi River, things look relatively quiet.
Stay connected to WBKO and WBKO.com and our mobile app for later updates. If you have not signed up for our free text alerts, that would be a good idea to do so now. You will find “buttons” at the top of the WBKO.com web page to download our app (both iPhone and Android) and to sign up for text alerts. In the meantime, if you’re heading out for the holiday weekend, be careful, enjoy your time with family and friends and KTWBIKY!
Temperatures are starting out rather chilly this morning – in the 20s under a clear sky across the region. You will find some frost on your windshield so allow some time to warm up you and your vehicle.
NO WEATHER IMPACT OF SIGNIFICANCE TODAY
A sprawling ridge of high pressure dominates our weather today with the center of it practically sitting right on top of Southern Kentucky/Middle Tennessee. The high pressure center will begin to move east today allowing for a more southerly wind flow starting tonight and especially on Thursday. In the meantime, expect a very nice day today with lots of sunshine and seasonable temperatures around 50° (average high for today 47°).
THURSDAY’S WEATHER IMPACT: BREEZY WINDS AT 10-20 MPH
We will see a warm and breezy day Thursday as the difference between the strong ridge of high pressure interacts with the deepening cold front to our west. That pressure difference will cause our winds to pick up from the south and southwest at 10-20 mph with some higher gusts expected Thursday afternoon and evening. This will also allow the Gulf of Mexico to open up with an abundant moisture feed starting late Thursday night. We will begin to see rain moving into the region early Friday. Mainly, scattered showers will develop over Southern Kentucky/Middle Tennessee as a slow moving cold front approaches. High temperatures in the coming days will run way above average in the 60s!
WEEKEND WEATHER IMPACT #1: HEAVY RAINS, FLOODED STREAMS/CREEKS/RIVERS
As mentioned here in previous posts, our area looks to see a washout for the upcoming weekend. Several rounds of potentially heavy rain will occur from Friday through early Sunday. The current rainfall forecast (above graphic) shows the potential for 2-3″ of total rainfall with higher amounts along and north of the Ohio River where a melting snowpack will make runoff a problem.
WEEKEND WEATHER IMPACT #2: POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) is picking up on what we discussed here previously…the possibility of some strong to severe storms on Saturday. While the current risk area does not include the immediate South Central Kentucky area, we could see enough instability for a few stronger storms. We’re not talking about a widespread tornado threat here but a few storms may reach severe limits. However, the biggest threat we will see this weekend is again from the potential for flooding.
As you can see from our long range forecast, all the nasty weather should be out of here in plenty of time for the Christmas holiday. Both Christmas Eve and Christmas Day look mainly sunny with high temperatures in the 40s and lows in the 20s.
AUDIO: Listen to Chris Allen’s Tuesday Morning Weather Podcast CLICK HERE
Mainly cloudy with areas of fog and drizzle.
8am: Mainly Cloudy 50°
10am: Mainly Cloudy 55°
12 Noon: Mainly Cloudy 58°
Monday was mild and it will be even warmer today and Wednesday. South to southwest winds take over, helping warm temperatures into the mid 60s with a shot at 70 degrees Wednesday! We will be mainly dry with areas of morning fog and a mix of sun and clouds before more clouds and a slight chance of rain – even a chance of thunderstorms returns for Wednesday.
Major changes are coming late in the week. A cold front eases through Thursday, spreading rain into South-Central KY. Some of the rain could be rather heavy late Thursday into early Friday. During that time, temperatures will begin to take a tumble.
After an early day high near 60 Thursday, readings backslide all the way down to near freezing Friday afternoon. This cold air will attempt to undercut warmer air and moisture aloft, setting us up for a potential changeover from rain to freezing rain and sleet Friday evening, and perhaps some snow before it ends late Friday night. Some snow/ice accumulation is possible, but it is much too soon to pin down amounts or travel impacts.
COLD WEEKEND…AND MORE WINTER WEATHER?
At this time, it appears dry but quite cold for Christmas parades in Bowling Green, Glasgow, and many other cities Saturday. Highs will only reach the middle 30s. The arctic air sets the stage for potentially more winter weather late Saturday night into Sunday as moisture arrives from the south. A mix of precip is likely to close out the weekend as a result with some accumulation possible. We should dry out but remain cold Monday.
Stay connected to WBKO, the WBKO app, WBKO.com along with our social media pages, blogs and podcasts for further updates on the potential impacts from this impending winter storm.
Mainly Cloudy and Warmer…High 65, winds S-11
Chance of Showers, Breezy and Mild…Low 55, winds S-13
Precip Ch. 30% – Rain Amount 0.02″
Breezy with Showers and Thunderstorms…High 70, winds SW-14
Precip Ch. 50% – Rain Amount 0.05″
Mainly cloudy with a chance of a sprinkle.
8am: Mostly Cloudy 42°
10am: Mostly Cloudy 48°
12 Noon: Cloudy 52°
CLOUDY, A FEW SHOWERS:
After a mostly sunny and milder Thursday, clouds increase over the region today. However, we will still work some sun in at times and that combined with a south wind should warm us into the upper 50s. A weak upper disturbance moving across the region may touch off a few rain showers, especially during the afternoon to early evening. Any rain will be light and should end in time for most high school football games tonight. Lows tonight will be much milder, only falling into the mid 40s.
A STORMY SUNDAY:
Our warming trend continues into the weekend, with Saturday looking to be the better of the two weekend days weather wise. It will be breezy with a mix of sun and clouds Saturday, with highs climbing into the upper 60s. We should get through the first half of the weekend rain-free before showers close in on western portions of the region late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Showers and thunderstorms are likely Sunday – especially late in the day – as a sharp cold front draws closer. Some storms late Sunday could be strong to severe, with damaging winds, marginally severe hail, and isolated tornadoes possible. Highs Sunday climb into the unseasonably warm lower 70s. Wind gusts could exceed 30mph Sunday.
ANOTHER ARCTIC SHOT:
Much colder air dives back into the region early next week. We dry out Monday, staying that way through Thursday. Highs plummet from the 60s Monday into just the mid 40s Tuesday. Overnight lows plunge into the 20s for midweek before some moderation late in the period.
Mostly Cloudy. Slight Chance for a Shower…High 58, winds S-8
Precip Ch. 30% – Rain Amount: 0.03″
Cloudy. Chance of Sprinkles…Low 45, winds S-8
Precip Ch. 20% – Rain Amount: 0.01″
Mostly Cloudy, Breezy and Warmer…High 67, Low 57, winds S 14-28
Windy. Thunderstorms Likely…High 72, Low 50, winds S 18-32
Precip Ch. 70% – Rain Amount: 0.40″
AUDIO: Listen to Chris Allen’s Thursday Morning Weather Podcast CLICK HERE
A clear, cold start giving way to warmer breezes under a sunny sky.
8am: Sunny 35°
10am: Sunny 45°
12 Noon: Sunny 52°
The arctic chill is in retreat. After another very cold start, sunshine along with a breezy south wind will warm us into the mid to upper 50s this afternoon. It will be chilly but not as cold tonight with readings bottoming out in the lower 30s under a mainly clear sky. Friday could feature a few more clouds, but we’ll close the work week out on a dry note. Highs should reach the upper 50s Friday afternoon.
South winds turn breezy again Saturday into Sunday as a storm system moves closer from out of the Plains. Saturday itself appears rain-free before showers move in from the west late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Another round of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms is likely late Sunday into Sunday night. Heavy rain and strong winds are possible before the system heads east Monday. Highs climb from the mid 60s Saturday to an unseasonably warm 70 Sunday.
ANOTHER ARCTIC SHOT:
Much colder air dives back into the region early next week. We dry out by late Monday, staying that way Tuesday into Wednesday. Highs plummet from the 60s Monday into just the lower 40s by midweek, with overnight lows dropping back into the cold 20s by the end of the period.
Sunny, Breezy and Warmer…High 57, winds S-11
Partly Cloudy and Cold…Low 31, winds S-3
Mostly Sunny, A Bit Warmer…High 58, winds S-6