Storm Prediction Center
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR ENTIRE WBKO VIEWING AREA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT
EARLY MORNING NOWCAST:
Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible along with breezy southwest winds.
6am: Cloudy, Isolated Showers 59°
8am: Cloudy, Scattered Showers 62°
10am: Cloudy, Scattered Showers 65°
A WINDY, STORMY THURSDAY:
Today’s weather will be VERY active to say the least. We expect multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms to affect the area. The first round of scattered showers with a few rumbles of thunder comes this morning with a warm front passing through. Severe storms are not expected with this first round. As the day progresses, expect mostly cloudy, windy, and warm conditions. Afternoon temperatures may flirt with record territory in the low to mid 70s! But that daytime heating may result in a more unstable atmosphere when the second round of storms arrives later today.
A powerful cold front will sweep through the region this evening. Expect an organized line of storms to develop ahead of it. Some of the storms within the line will be capable of producing locally damaging winds of 60-70 mph. Torrential downpours are also likely, and isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out. The main threat for severe weather comes between 3-6pm for locations west of I-65, around 6-7pm for Bowling Green and along I-65, and between 7-10pm for areas east of the interstate. Be aware of rapidly changing conditions, especially late afternoon into early evening. Stay connected to WBKO, WBKO.com and the WBKO app as we track this powerful system.
We dry out Friday, with temperatures remaining mild through the early part of the weekend. A cold front eases through Sunday morning, sending temperatures down to more seasonal levels to close out the weekend.
WINTER NOT OVER YET:
Much colder air returns early next week, with below normal temperatures through the period. There is a slight chance for rain or snow Tuesday morning.
Windy & Warm. Strong Late Day Storms…High 75, winds S 24-44mph
Precip Chance: 90% – Amount: 0.50″
Breezy with Strong Thunderstorms…Low 37, winds W-18
Precip Chance: 100% – Amount: 0.75″
Sunny and Cooler…High 54, winds SW-12
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR ENTIRE WBKO VIEWING AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
EARLY MORNING NOWCAST:
Showers and thunderstorms will move out of the viewing area followed by clearing west to east.
6am: Clearing 51°
8am: Mostly Sunny 50°
10am: Mostly Sunny 52°
STORMS END, SUN RETURNS:
It’s been a while but many of us were awakened by the sound of thunder early this morning. A weak disturbance moved through bringing some Spring-like thunderstorms which are now moving away. We’ll dry out this morning with a mix of sun and clouds expected today. We stay warm, with highs near 60.
STRONG STORMS THURSDAY:
Our next system arrives Thursday, and it looks quite potent. It will be packing plenty of wind/jet stream energy along with abundant moisture. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely with this system. The first round is expected early in the day, with the second (and stronger) round coming late in the day. At this time, it appears an organized line of storms will march through the entire area between 3pm-9pm Thursday. Some storms within that line may be capable of producing locally damaging winds, with isolated tornadoes and hail also possible. It will be a very windy, warm day, with near record high temperatures in the low to mid 70s before the cold front arrives in the evening. Stay connected to WBKO and wbko.com as we track this powerful system.
We dry out Friday, with temperatures remaining mild through the early part of the weekend. By early next week, colder readings make a comeback, with a chance for rain or snow showing up Tuesday.
Partly Sunny, Continued Warm… High 61, winds SE-6
Cloudy & Breezy, Thunderstorms After Midnight…Low 48, winds S-13
Precip Chance: 30% – Amount: 0.10″
AM Storms, then Breezy with Strong Late Day Storms…High 75, S-24
Precip Chance: 80% – Amount: 0.50″
A look at radar at 8:14 this morning shows scattered showers with brief downpours occurring. Much of the activity is moving east of I-65. So far, no thunderstorms have been detected. Our day is starting windy and warm with temperatures in the 50s.
The morning Futurecast map for 10am shows scattered showers will continue today with maybe a few brief downpours but nothing serious. Of course, the winds will continue to kick up from the south and southwest at 15-25, even 30 mph at times.
The Futurecast map for 10pm tonight shows a tapering off of some of the scattered shower activity while heavier rains and thunderstorms ramp up to our west. We will begin to see heavier rain pick up for a time tonight – especially west of I-65. No severe storms are forecast tonight, just general rumbles of thunder with the possibility of some drenching downpours.
Overnight is when we will begin to see many of the Flood Watches and Advisories go up “officially” and as you can see, they are pretty widespread. There is a warm and a cold side to this massive storm system and we will stay on the warm side of things for the duration of the weekend. While the Flood Watch takes up only the western third of the WBKO viewing area as of this writing, it could be further extended east as we go through the day. Further north and northwest (the cold side), there are numerous Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Watches. If you’re planning to travel north or west of St. Louis, look for snow and ice to become a major issue throughout the weekend.
Saturday begins with a line of intense rain and strong thunderstorms just to our west as a second impulse of low pressure rides along a stalled frontal boundary. That slow movement will lead to drenching downpours and torrential rains mainly west of I-65 for the first half of Saturday. Some of you east of I-65 and along the Cumberland Plateau may not even see that much rain for the first part of the day. In fact, if enough sun energy bleeds through the clouds, this will cause a rise in instability which may lead to stronger storms later in the day. Therefore…
…the Storm Prediction Center has placed ALL of the WBKO viewing area (and beyond) under a SLIGHT RISK for severe storms Saturday afternoon and evening. While the primary threat area looks to be west of I-65, that added instability I just mentioned will slowly move east into Saturday evening putting all of our viewers under the threat for potentially damaging winds, flooding rains and even a few brief, short-lived tornado “spin-ups” as we have seen before with these kind of systems. It will be in the form of a quasi-linear “line” of storms that can bow out at certain points causing a tornado or two. However, the overall tornado threat is not very high and much of that depends on any sun we get on Saturday.
As we have discussed here, on TV and my podcast over the last few days, rainfall is going to be the biggest impact from this system for Southern Kentucky. Again, the rainfall forecast map shows that we are in a “split” between very heavy rain to the west of I-65 with lighter amounts to the east. With the slow propagation of the cold front, this will cause creeks, streams and rivers to rise above bank full to the west with amounts of 3-4″ while 2-3″ rains are certainly possible in and around the Bowling Green area Saturday into Sunday. Low water fords and some back roads will certainly become flooded over the weekend and even into early next week.
By Saturday night, the second impulse of low pressure will be passing to our north and the stalled front will begin to move eastward…slowly. Some of the heaviest rain for those along and east of I-65 will take place then begin to subside early Sunday. Colder air will move in as well dropping our temperatures by Sunday afternoon into the 40s, then into the 30s but the best moisture will be gone by the time the cold air arrives…therefore, we are not looking for any winter weather with this system here in Southern Kentucky.
The long range forecast still calls for a quiet but “snow free” Christmas here. Highs will be in the mid 30s Christmas Eve but will warm into the upper 40s by Christmas Day. Some rain will move in for Thursday.
We will do our best to keep you up to date on the weather situation throughout the weekend. Just download our WBKO app from the App Store or Google Play and you will see radar and the latest forecasts. Stephanie Midgett will be here with any live updates if they become necessary. Be sure and have your NOAA weather radio turned on just in case warnings are issued. If you’re leaving out of town for the holiday, have a blessed Christmas time with your family and friends, drive safe and KTWBIKY!
Temperatures are starting out rather chilly this morning – in the 20s under a clear sky across the region. You will find some frost on your windshield so allow some time to warm up you and your vehicle.
NO WEATHER IMPACT OF SIGNIFICANCE TODAY
A sprawling ridge of high pressure dominates our weather today with the center of it practically sitting right on top of Southern Kentucky/Middle Tennessee. The high pressure center will begin to move east today allowing for a more southerly wind flow starting tonight and especially on Thursday. In the meantime, expect a very nice day today with lots of sunshine and seasonable temperatures around 50° (average high for today 47°).
THURSDAY’S WEATHER IMPACT: BREEZY WINDS AT 10-20 MPH
We will see a warm and breezy day Thursday as the difference between the strong ridge of high pressure interacts with the deepening cold front to our west. That pressure difference will cause our winds to pick up from the south and southwest at 10-20 mph with some higher gusts expected Thursday afternoon and evening. This will also allow the Gulf of Mexico to open up with an abundant moisture feed starting late Thursday night. We will begin to see rain moving into the region early Friday. Mainly, scattered showers will develop over Southern Kentucky/Middle Tennessee as a slow moving cold front approaches. High temperatures in the coming days will run way above average in the 60s!
WEEKEND WEATHER IMPACT #1: HEAVY RAINS, FLOODED STREAMS/CREEKS/RIVERS
As mentioned here in previous posts, our area looks to see a washout for the upcoming weekend. Several rounds of potentially heavy rain will occur from Friday through early Sunday. The current rainfall forecast (above graphic) shows the potential for 2-3″ of total rainfall with higher amounts along and north of the Ohio River where a melting snowpack will make runoff a problem.
WEEKEND WEATHER IMPACT #2: POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) is picking up on what we discussed here previously…the possibility of some strong to severe storms on Saturday. While the current risk area does not include the immediate South Central Kentucky area, we could see enough instability for a few stronger storms. We’re not talking about a widespread tornado threat here but a few storms may reach severe limits. However, the biggest threat we will see this weekend is again from the potential for flooding.
As you can see from our long range forecast, all the nasty weather should be out of here in plenty of time for the Christmas holiday. Both Christmas Eve and Christmas Day look mainly sunny with high temperatures in the 40s and lows in the 20s.
This morning we’re watching a decaying cold front that has produced some light snow flurries and a little mixed precip to areas of the northern Bluegrass but not much else. Radar and satellite trends indicate what little precipitation is there is fading away fast as it moves southeast. A sprinkle or flurry is possible near the Bluegrass and Western Kentucky Parkways this morning but temperatures are warm enough that it’s not an issue.
TODAY’S WEATHER IMPACT: BREEZY WINDS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE.
As this cold front passes today, winds will pick up from the west at 10-15 mph with some higher gusts of 20-25 mph. This along with a few clouds will keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than Monday with highs expected in the mid 40s. We will see a mix of clouds and sunshine the rest of today.
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY
We are looking sunny and warm once we get into Wednesday as a high pressure ridge slides east. This will allow for a more southerly wind flow helping temperatures rise into the low to mid 50s. As the chart above shows, the average high for this time of year is 47° and we’re likely to see readings rise into the 60s for the final few days of Autumn. But, you can also look at that chart and see significant changes are coming once we enter the start of Winter and the days leading up to Christmas.
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS, HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING BEGINNING FRIDAY
Model guidance is coming into better agreement that the cold front coming in for the weekend (one of the busiest travel weekends of the year) will be a major rain producer. The front coming in will stall over the region with waves of low pressure riding along the front. Each “wave” will touch off rounds of heavy rainfall. The current models are indicating some of the heaviest rain may be expected on Saturday with the potential amounts of 2-3″. This would cause minor flooding along creeks, rivers and streams and cause some low-water fords/bridges to flood through the weekend and into early next week.
Here is another chart showing the “precipitable water” values early Sunday morning and two of the low pressure systems passing right over Southern Kentucky. With these high values – and the possibility we could see enough convective energy for thunderstorms – we must consider and prepare for what appears to be a sloppy weekend and one that could cause some issues with high water.
The Storm Prediction Center has not outlined a risk area for severe storms here as of this writing but it is certainly possible should we have enough available energy. However, any forecast of severe storms for our area is merely speculative right now. We will wait for future model runs to get a better fix on that. KTWBIKY!
Scattered showers along with a few rumbles of thunder are likely for the drive to work this morning.
A STORMY START:
A reinforcing cold front will move through the area during the afternoon which will bring rain and possibly some thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center has our area in a *SLIGHT RISK* for severe storms with the main threats being gusty winds and possibly small hail. This will all be dependent on how much instability is in the region this afternoon. Cooler air will move in behind this front but temperatures will still be a bit above seasonal averages. Temperatures will be in the mid 50s for Tuesday before reaching near 60° Wednesday.
STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE LATE WEEK:
Thursday a strong storm system looks to move into the region with a sharp cold front. Strong storms are possible during the day. This front will also cool us down quite a bit for next weekend, late week temperatures in the low 40s during the day and in the 20s overnight, before returning to the mid 40s for next weekend.
Occasional Showers and Thunderstorms…High 64, winds SW-10
Precip Ch. 60% – Rain Amount 0.20″
Showers and Thunderstorms Ending…Low 38, winds SW-5
Precip Ch. 40% – Rain Amount 0.10″
Mostly Sunny and Cooler…High 55, winds SW-9
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING for Christian, Hopkins, McLean, Muhlenberg, and Todd Cos. until 7pm tonight. A HEAT ADVISORY is in effect for the rest of South-Central KY from 11am-6pm tonight. Heat indices will climb into the 105-110° range tomorrow afternoon.
SLIGHT RISK of severe storms beginning this afternoon through tonight for the entire WBKO viewing area. The potential exists for damaging winds, heavy rains and resultant power outages.
We’re off to a mainly clear start with a warm and muggy breeze this morning. We’ll see sunshine with isolated showers possible by late morning.
ONE MORE SCORCHER…
The steamy Summer of 2012 marches on! The mercury approached 100° Wednesday afternoon under plenty of hot sunshine in Bowling Green, with heat indices topping out at 111° at one point. Temperatures and humidities will run quite high another time today before some changes arrive. Expect mostly sunny skies through the early afternoon before some increase in clouds as a cold front moves in from the Midwest. There will be a chance for scattered thunderstorms Thursday evening into the overnight hours. A few storms may reach severe limits, with most of the area highlighted by the Storm Prediction Center in a SLIGHT RISK for storms that may contain locally damaging winds which may result in a number of downed trees and power lines (much like we saw last Thursday).
…THEN A BIT COOLER:
The cold front eases through Friday with a continued chance for scattered showers and storms during the day. It will be a bit cooler behind the system, with highs dropping into the low 90s. The weekend looks quiet with seasonably warm readings and a bit less humidity.
EARLY NEXT WEEK:
Unsettled weather returns Monday afternoon through Wednesday with a chance for scattered showers and storms each day. Highs remain in the lower 90s.
Breezy & Hot, Afternoon Thunderstorms…High 98, winds SW-15
Precip Ch. 50% – Rain Amount .20″
Heat Index: 105-110°
Thunderstorms Likely, Some Severe…Low 74, winds W-6
Precip Ch. 70% – Rain Amount .40″
Mostly Cloudy, Chance of Showers…High 91, winds W-6
Precip Ch. 30% – Rain Amount .10″
The airmass over Kentucky seems to be stabilizing thanks to clouds and an on-going MCS (mesoscale convective system) that’s rolling through parts of Mississippi and Alabama at the noon hour.
With higher stability numbers – despite lots of sunshine – it appears that any storms that fire ahead of a cold front this afternoon should stay under severe limits even though a few could be strong.
A better chance of rain and thunderstorms exists tonight as the cold front moves through the area. There may be some heavy downpours along with lightning and gusty winds but the SPC says any severe weather threat now appears limited or marginal at best.
SLIGHT RISK of severe storms across the WBKO viewing area this afternoon and evening…
Mainly cloudy this morning with a few scattered showers developing west of I-65.
STORMY START TO THE WEEK:
Today will bring partly sunny skies turning mostly cloudy as a cold front moves into the area. Thunderstorms that could be strong to severe are likely this afternoon into the evening with the main threats being hail and gusty winds. The entire viewing area is under a *SLIGHT RISK* of severe weather mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.
After the cold front moves through tonight, cooler air will slide into the region and stay through the end of the 7 day period. A few showers will linger Tuesday morning, but after that skies clear. Daytime highs from Tuesday on will be in the mid 70s with overnight lows in the upper 40s and lower 50s across the area.
Scat’d Showers and Thunderstorms… High 84, winds S-13
Precip Chance 80% – Rain Amount .25″
Scat’d Showers and Thunderstorms…Low 65, winds W-6
Precip Chance 80% – Rain Amount .50″
Morning Showers, then Mostly Cloudy…High 76, winds NW-7
Precip Chance 40% – Rain Amount .10″
The latest update of the SLIGHT RISK area for potential severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening extends the outlook area further east.
While we do have a nice cap (lid of warm air) holding back thunderstorm development right now (as of 11:30am), we’re seeing signs that cap will break in the next few hours allowing rapid initiation of thunderstorms ahead of a cold front. Dewpoints are rising into the low 70s which means there’s plenty of moist air at the surface to feed these storms.
The primary threat for the WBKO viewing area will be the potential for storms to produce damaging winds and large hail. The tornado threat is rather low – less than 2%.
There isn’t a particular time the storms will get going but it should be any time in the next couple of hours…if not sooner.
The National Weather Service anticipates issuing a Severe Thunderstorm Watch shortly for much of the WBKO viewing area.
Check you preparedness plans, turn your NOAA weather radio on, take advantage of our apps and maps at WBKO.com and “know the weather before it knows you!”