Storm Prediction Center

Warm and Unsettled

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A slight risk of severe storms exists over all of the WBKO viewing area Thursday.  A greater "moderate" threat exists for far western Kentucky, Southern Illinois, the Missouri bootheel, west Tennessee, NW Mississippi and much of Arkansas.
A slight risk of severe storms exists over all of the WBKO viewing area Thursday. A greater “moderate” threat exists for far western Kentucky, Southern Illinois, the Missouri bootheel, west Tennessee, NW Mississippi and much of Arkansas.

NOWCAST THROUGH LATE MORNING:
A fair sky to start with increasing clouds and winds later.
6am: Mainly Clear 49°
8am: Partly Sunny 55°
10am: Partly Sunny 64°

STILL WARM BUT TURNING UNSETTLED:
Our April Fools Day Tuesday gave us our warmest temperatures of the year so far, soaring into the upper 70s to near 80 with loads of sun and breezy southwest winds! We’ll stay warm through the end of the work week but things are about to turn wetter, and at times, stormy. A warm front pushing slowly northward over the region today may touch off a few widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Rain chances increase late tonight into Thursday as more disturbances ride eastward into the area. Rainfall could be heavy at times under some of the stronger storms, with small hail possible. Highs today and Thursday will reach the 70s with mild overnight lows only around 60.

As low pressure and a trailing cold front advance through South-Central Kentucky early Friday, there will be potential for some storms to be strong to severe late Thursday night into early Friday morning. A SLIGHT RISK for storms containing gusty winds and large hail is up for much of the region during that period. We’ll dry out Friday afternoon, with highs around 70 to close out the work week.

COOLER WEEKEND:
At this time, Saturday and Sunday look dry but cooler. Highs will be in the lower 60s with overnight lows in the lower 40s.

MORE RAIN:
Another storm system moving northeastward out of the Deep South may send more rain back into the region Monday. Highs remain in the lower 60s early next week.

——

TODAY:
Breezy. Scat’d Showers & T/Storms…High 78, winds S-14
Precip Ch. 20% – Rain Amount 0.05″

TONIGHT:
Scattered Showers and Thunderstorms… Low 60, winds S-8
Precip Ch. 50% – Rain Amount 0.25″

THURSDAY:
Occasional Showers and Thunderstorms…High 75, winds SW-15
Precip Ch. 60% – Rain Amount 0.25″

April Showers

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Forecast rain chances increase starting Wednesday afternoon and lasting until midday Friday.  Amounts in Southern Kentucky look to range around one inch.
Forecast rain chances increase starting Wednesday afternoon and lasting until midday Friday. Amounts in Southern Kentucky look to range around one inch.

NOWCAST THROUGH LATE MORNING:
Mostly cloudy to start with a chance of sprinkles.
6am: Partly Cloudy 56°
8am: Mostly Sunny 56°
10am: Sunny 64°

NO FOOLIN’:
The March that came in like a lion with a big winter storm on the 2nd & 3rd went out like a lamb with lots of sunshine and highs in the 70s yesterday. Our April Fools’ Day looks even warmer under a mix of sun and clouds after some morning sprinkles. Highs should reach the mid 70s to make for one of our warmest days of the year so far! Skies remain partly cloudy Tuesday night, with lows in the lower 50s.

APRIL SHOWERS:
Our next storm system moves into the region late Wednesday bringing only scattered showers at first. But by Thursday, periods of rain and thunderstorms are likely. Some heavy downpours are possible. Highs will be in the low to mid 70s until a cold front passes through on Friday morning which will bring an end to the rain and usher in cooler temperatures.

THE WEEKEND:
At this time, Saturday and Sunday look dry but cooler. Highs will be in the lower 60s with overnight lows in the lower 40s. A slight chance for showers returns Monday.

——

TODAY:
Partly Sunny and Warm…High 76, winds SW-11

TONIGHT:
Partly Cloudy and Mild… Low 53, winds S-5

WEDNESDAY:
Partly Sunny, Breezy with Afternoon Showers…High 78, winds S-14
Precip Ch. 20% – Rain Amount 0.05″

From Cold and Snowy to Warm and Stormy

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Southern Kentucky now included in a slight risk for severe storms Friday afternoon and evening.  The primary threats will be the potential for damaging winds and large hail.
Southern Kentucky now included in a slight risk for severe storms Friday afternoon and evening. The primary threats will be the potential for damaging winds and large hail.

NOWCAST THROUGH LATE MORNING:
Mainly clear and very cold.
6am: Clear 24°
8am: Sunny 27°
10am: Sunny 32°

STILL CHILLY:
We may be almost a week into Spring but Tuesday felt wintry with blustery conditions, unseasonably cold temperatures, and occasional snow showers. Clearing skies overnight will set us up for a very cold morning. Today will remain chilly but at least we’ll see lots of sunshine and winds will be much lighter. Highs will reach the upper 40s with increasing clouds late tonight – lows will drop into the lower 30s.

WARMER BUT WETTER:
Temperatures more typical of early Spring return by Thursday and Friday but so does some rain. A frontal system draws closer to us Thursday night spreading numerous showers and a few thunderstorms into the region. As the cold front passes through Friday evening, there is a risk a few of the storms could become severe with the potential for damaging winds and large hail. Highs climb back to near 60 Thursday and into the upper 60s Friday.

DRYING OUT:
It now appears we may have to contend with rain into much of our Saturday before we dry out late Saturday into Sunday. Highs climb from near 60 Saturday into the upper 60s to close out the weekend. We may finally see 70s once again Monday before a weak system delivers a chance for rain and a small cool down into Tuesday.

TODAY:
Mostly Sunny, Not as Cold…High 47, winds SE-5

TONIGHT:
Increasing Clouds…Low 32, winds S-5

THURSDAY:
Breezy & Warmer, Chance of Aft’n Showers…High 60, winds SW-20
Rain Chance 20% – Rain Amount 0.03″

Damaging Wind and Tornado Threat Today

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The risk for severe storms continues today for all of Kentucky with the primary threat being the potential for damaging straight-line winds.  While there is a small tornado threat, a few brief spin-ups are possible along the leading edge of storms expected this evening.
The risk for severe storms continues today for all of Kentucky with the primary threat being the potential for damaging straight-line winds. While there is a small tornado threat, a few brief spin-ups are possible along the leading edge of storms expected this evening.

SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR ENTIRE WBKO VIEWING AREA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT

EARLY MORNING NOWCAST:
Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible along with breezy southwest winds.
6am: Cloudy, Isolated Showers 59°
8am: Cloudy, Scattered Showers 62°
10am: Cloudy, Scattered Showers 65°

A WINDY, STORMY THURSDAY:
Today’s weather will be VERY active to say the least. We expect multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms to affect the area. The first round of scattered showers with a few rumbles of thunder comes this morning with a warm front passing through. Severe storms are not expected with this first round. As the day progresses, expect mostly cloudy, windy, and warm conditions. Afternoon temperatures may flirt with record territory in the low to mid 70s! But that daytime heating may result in a more unstable atmosphere when the second round of storms arrives later today.

A powerful cold front will sweep through the region this evening. Expect an organized line of storms to develop ahead of it. Some of the storms within the line will be capable of producing locally damaging winds of 60-70 mph. Torrential downpours are also likely, and isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out. The main threat for severe weather comes between 3-6pm for locations west of I-65, around 6-7pm for Bowling Green and along I-65, and between 7-10pm for areas east of the interstate. Be aware of rapidly changing conditions, especially late afternoon into early evening. Stay connected to WBKO, WBKO.com and the WBKO app as we track this powerful system.

QUIETING DOWN:
We dry out Friday, with temperatures remaining mild through the early part of the weekend. A cold front eases through Sunday morning, sending temperatures down to more seasonal levels to close out the weekend.

WINTER NOT OVER YET:
Much colder air returns early next week, with below normal temperatures through the period. There is a slight chance for rain or snow Tuesday morning.

TODAY:
Windy & Warm. Strong Late Day Storms…High 75, winds S 24-44mph
Precip Chance: 90% – Amount: 0.50″

TONIGHT:
Breezy with Strong Thunderstorms…Low 37, winds W-18
Precip Chance: 100% – Amount: 0.75″

FRIDAY:
Sunny and Cooler…High 54, winds SW-12

Severe Storm Threat for Thursday

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ALL of the WBKO viewing area is under a risk for severe storms Thursday.  Main threat continues to be the potential for damaging winds but an isolated tornado is also a possibility.
ALL of the WBKO viewing area is under a risk for severe storms Thursday. Main threat continues to be the potential for damaging winds but an isolated tornado is also a possibility.

SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR ENTIRE WBKO VIEWING AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT

EARLY MORNING NOWCAST:
Showers and thunderstorms will move out of the viewing area followed by clearing west to east.
6am: Clearing 51°
8am: Mostly Sunny 50°
10am: Mostly Sunny 52°

STORMS END, SUN RETURNS:
It’s been a while but many of us were awakened by the sound of thunder early this morning. A weak disturbance moved through bringing some Spring-like thunderstorms which are now moving away. We’ll dry out this morning with a mix of sun and clouds expected today. We stay warm, with highs near 60.

STRONG STORMS THURSDAY:
Our next system arrives Thursday, and it looks quite potent. It will be packing plenty of wind/jet stream energy along with abundant moisture. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely with this system. The first round is expected early in the day, with the second (and stronger) round coming late in the day. At this time, it appears an organized line of storms will march through the entire area between 3pm-9pm Thursday. Some storms within that line may be capable of producing locally damaging winds, with isolated tornadoes and hail also possible. It will be a very windy, warm day, with near record high temperatures in the low to mid 70s before the cold front arrives in the evening. Stay connected to WBKO and wbko.com as we track this powerful system.

QUIETING DOWN:
We dry out Friday, with temperatures remaining mild through the early part of the weekend. By early next week, colder readings make a comeback, with a chance for rain or snow showing up Tuesday.

TODAY:
Partly Sunny, Continued Warm… High 61, winds SE-6

TONIGHT:
Cloudy & Breezy, Thunderstorms After Midnight…Low 48, winds S-13
Precip Chance: 30% – Amount: 0.10″

THURSDAY:
AM Storms, then Breezy with Strong Late Day Storms…High 75, S-24
Precip Chance: 80% – Amount: 0.50″

Flood Watch, Severe Weather Threat for the Weekend

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Dec20radar

A look at radar at 8:14 this morning shows scattered showers with brief downpours occurring.  Much of the activity is moving east of I-65.  So far, no thunderstorms have been detected.  Our day is starting windy and warm with temperatures in the 50s.

Dec20fri10am

The morning Futurecast map for 10am shows scattered showers will continue today with maybe a few brief downpours but nothing serious.  Of course, the winds will continue to kick up from the south and southwest at 15-25, even 30 mph at times.

Dec20fri10pm

The Futurecast map for 10pm tonight shows a tapering off of some of the scattered shower activity while heavier rains and thunderstorms ramp up to our west.  We will begin to see heavier rain pick up for a time tonight – especially west of I-65.  No severe storms are forecast tonight, just general rumbles of thunder with the possibility of some drenching downpours.

Dec20watches

Overnight is when we will begin to see many of the Flood Watches and Advisories go up “officially” and as you can see, they are pretty widespread.  There is a warm and a cold side to this massive storm system and we will stay on the warm side of things for the duration of the weekend.  While the Flood Watch takes up only the western third of the WBKO viewing area as of this writing, it could be further extended east as we go through the day.  Further north and northwest (the cold side), there are numerous Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Watches.  If you’re planning to travel north or west of St. Louis, look for snow and ice to become a major issue throughout the weekend.

Dec20sat10am

Saturday begins with a line of intense rain and strong thunderstorms just to our west as a second impulse of low pressure rides along a stalled frontal boundary.  That slow movement will lead to drenching downpours and torrential rains mainly west of I-65 for the first half of Saturday.  Some of you east of I-65 and along the Cumberland Plateau may not even see that much rain for the first part of the day.  In fact, if enough sun energy bleeds through the clouds, this will cause a rise in instability which may lead to stronger storms later in the day.  Therefore…

Dec20svr

…the Storm Prediction Center has placed ALL of the WBKO viewing area (and beyond) under a SLIGHT RISK for severe storms Saturday afternoon and evening.  While the primary threat area looks to be west of I-65, that added instability I just mentioned will slowly move east into Saturday evening putting all of our viewers under the threat for potentially damaging winds, flooding rains and even a few brief, short-lived tornado “spin-ups” as we have seen before with these kind of systems.  It will be in the form of a quasi-linear “line” of storms that can bow out at certain points causing a tornado or two.  However, the overall tornado threat is not very high and much of that depends on any sun we get on Saturday.

Dec20qpf

As we have discussed here, on TV and my podcast over the last few days, rainfall is going to be the biggest impact from this system for Southern Kentucky.  Again, the rainfall forecast map shows that we are in a “split” between very heavy rain to the west of I-65 with lighter amounts to the east.  With the slow propagation of the cold front, this will cause creeks, streams and rivers to rise above bank full to the west with amounts of 3-4″ while 2-3″ rains are certainly possible in and around the Bowling Green area Saturday into Sunday.  Low water fords and some back roads will certainly become flooded over the weekend and even into early next week.

Dec20sat10pm

By Saturday night, the second impulse of low pressure will be passing to our north and the stalled front will begin to move eastward…slowly.  Some of the heaviest rain for those along and east of I-65 will take place then begin to subside early Sunday.  Colder air will move in as well dropping our temperatures by Sunday afternoon into the 40s, then into the 30s but the best moisture will be gone by the time the cold air arrives…therefore, we are not looking for any winter weather with this system here in Southern Kentucky.

Dec20icast

The long range forecast still calls for a quiet but “snow free” Christmas here.  Highs will be in the mid 30s Christmas Eve but will warm into the upper 40s by Christmas Day.  Some rain will move in for Thursday.

We will do our best to keep you up to date on the weather situation throughout the weekend.  Just download our WBKO app from the App Store or Google Play and you will see radar and the latest forecasts.  Stephanie Midgett will be here with any live updates if they become necessary.  Be sure and have your NOAA weather radio turned on just in case warnings are issued.  If you’re leaving out of town for the holiday, have a blessed Christmas time with your family and friends, drive safe and KTWBIKY!

 

Heavy Rain, Flooding Becoming A Concern

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Dec18temps

Temperatures are starting out rather chilly this morning – in the 20s under a clear sky across the region.  You will find some frost on your windshield so allow some time to warm up you and your vehicle.

Dec18ridge

NO WEATHER IMPACT OF SIGNIFICANCE TODAY

A sprawling ridge of high pressure dominates our weather today with the center of it practically sitting right on top of Southern Kentucky/Middle Tennessee.  The high pressure center will begin to move east today allowing for a more southerly wind flow starting tonight and especially on Thursday.  In the meantime, expect a very nice day today with lots of sunshine and seasonable temperatures around 50° (average high for today 47°).

Dec18moisture

THURSDAY’S WEATHER IMPACT: BREEZY WINDS AT 10-20 MPH

We will see a warm and breezy day Thursday as the difference between the strong ridge of high pressure interacts with the deepening cold front to our west.  That pressure difference will cause our winds to pick up from the south and southwest at 10-20 mph with some higher gusts expected Thursday afternoon and evening.  This will also allow the Gulf of Mexico to open up with an abundant moisture feed starting late Thursday night.  We will begin to see rain moving into the region early Friday.  Mainly, scattered showers will develop over Southern Kentucky/Middle Tennessee as a slow moving cold front approaches.  High temperatures in the coming days will run way above average in the 60s!

Dec18qpf

WEEKEND WEATHER IMPACT #1: HEAVY RAINS, FLOODED STREAMS/CREEKS/RIVERS

As mentioned here in previous posts, our area looks to see a washout for the upcoming weekend.  Several rounds of potentially heavy rain will occur from Friday through early Sunday.  The current rainfall forecast (above graphic) shows the potential for 2-3″ of total rainfall with higher amounts along and north of the Ohio River where a melting snowpack will make runoff a problem.

Dec18spc

WEEKEND WEATHER IMPACT #2:  POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS

The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) is picking up on what we discussed here previously…the possibility of some strong to severe storms on Saturday.  While the current risk area does not include the immediate South Central Kentucky area, we could see enough instability for a few stronger storms.  We’re not talking about a widespread tornado threat here but a few storms may reach severe limits.  However, the biggest threat we will see this weekend is again from the potential for flooding.

Dec18icast

As you can see from our long range forecast, all the nasty weather should be out of here in plenty of time for the Christmas holiday.  Both Christmas Eve and Christmas Day look mainly sunny with high temperatures in the 40s and lows in the 20s.

 

A Big Warmup, then A Very Wet Weekend

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Dec17radsat

This morning we’re watching a decaying cold front that has produced some light snow flurries and a little mixed precip to areas of the northern Bluegrass but not much else.  Radar and satellite trends indicate what little precipitation is there is fading away fast as it moves southeast.  A sprinkle or flurry is possible near the Bluegrass and Western Kentucky Parkways this morning but temperatures are warm enough that it’s not an issue.

Dec17winds

TODAY’S WEATHER IMPACT: BREEZY WINDS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE.

As this cold front passes today, winds will pick up from the west at 10-15 mph with some higher gusts of 20-25 mph.  This along with a few clouds will keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than Monday with highs expected in the mid 40s.  We will see a mix of clouds and sunshine the rest of today.

Dec17bufkit

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY

We are looking sunny and warm once we get into Wednesday as a high pressure ridge slides east.  This will allow for a more southerly wind flow helping temperatures rise into the low to mid 50s.  As the chart above shows, the average high for this time of year is 47° and we’re likely to see readings rise into the 60s for the final few days of Autumn.  But, you can also look at that chart and see significant changes are coming once we enter the start of Winter and the days leading up to Christmas.

Dec17rain

POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS, HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING BEGINNING FRIDAY

Model guidance is coming into better agreement that the cold front coming in for the weekend (one of the busiest travel weekends of the year) will be a major rain producer.  The front coming in will stall over the region with waves of low pressure riding along the front.  Each “wave” will touch off rounds of heavy rainfall.  The current models are indicating some of the heaviest rain may be expected on Saturday with the potential amounts of 2-3″.  This would cause minor flooding along creeks, rivers and streams and cause some low-water fords/bridges to flood through the weekend and into early next week.

Dec17pwat

Here is another chart showing the “precipitable water” values early Sunday morning and two of the low pressure systems passing right over Southern Kentucky.  With these high values – and the possibility we could see enough convective energy for thunderstorms – we must consider and prepare for what appears to be a sloppy weekend and one that could cause some issues with high water.

The Storm Prediction Center has not outlined a risk area for severe storms here as of this writing but it is certainly possible should we have enough available energy.  However, any forecast of severe storms for our area is merely speculative right now.  We will wait for future model runs to get a better fix on that.  KTWBIKY!

 

Strong Storms Possible

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Severe121712

NOWCAST:
Scattered showers along with a few rumbles of thunder are likely for the drive to work this morning.

A STORMY START:
A reinforcing cold front will move through the area during the afternoon which will bring rain and possibly some thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center has our area in a *SLIGHT RISK* for severe storms with the main threats being gusty winds and possibly small hail. This will all be dependent on how much instability is in the region this afternoon. Cooler air will move in behind this front but temperatures will still be a bit above seasonal averages. Temperatures will be in the mid 50s for Tuesday before reaching near 60° Wednesday.

STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE LATE WEEK:
Thursday a strong storm system looks to move into the region with a sharp cold front. Strong storms are possible during the day. This front will also cool us down quite a bit for next weekend, late week temperatures in the low 40s during the day and in the 20s overnight, before returning to the mid 40s for next weekend.

TODAY:
Occasional Showers and Thunderstorms…High 64, winds SW-10
Precip Ch. 60% – Rain Amount 0.20″

TONIGHT:
Showers and Thunderstorms Ending…Low 38, winds SW-5
Precip Ch. 40% – Rain Amount 0.10″

TUESDAY:
Mostly Sunny and Cooler…High 55, winds SW-9

 

High Heat Followed By Severe Storms

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EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING for Christian, Hopkins, McLean, Muhlenberg, and Todd Cos. until 7pm tonight. A HEAT ADVISORY is in effect for the rest of South-Central KY from 11am-6pm tonight. Heat indices will climb into the 105-110° range tomorrow afternoon.

SLIGHT RISK of severe storms beginning this afternoon through tonight for the entire WBKO viewing area. The potential exists for damaging winds, heavy rains and resultant power outages.

NOWCAST:
We’re off to a mainly clear start with a warm and muggy breeze this morning. We’ll see sunshine with isolated showers possible by late morning.

ONE MORE SCORCHER…
The steamy Summer of 2012 marches on! The mercury approached 100° Wednesday afternoon under plenty of hot sunshine in Bowling Green, with heat indices topping out at 111° at one point. Temperatures and humidities will run quite high another time today before some changes arrive. Expect mostly sunny skies through the early afternoon before some increase in clouds as a cold front moves in from the Midwest. There will be a chance for scattered thunderstorms Thursday evening into the overnight hours. A few storms may reach severe limits, with most of the area highlighted by the Storm Prediction Center in a SLIGHT RISK for storms that may contain locally damaging winds which may result in a number of downed trees and power lines (much like we saw last Thursday).

…THEN A BIT COOLER:
The cold front eases through Friday with a continued chance for scattered showers and storms during the day. It will be a bit cooler behind the system, with highs dropping into the low 90s. The weekend looks quiet with seasonably warm readings and a bit less humidity.

EARLY NEXT WEEK:
Unsettled weather returns Monday afternoon through Wednesday with a chance for scattered showers and storms each day. Highs remain in the lower 90s.

TODAY:
Breezy & Hot, Afternoon Thunderstorms…High 98, winds SW-15
Precip Ch. 50% – Rain Amount .20″
Heat Index: 105-110°

TONIGHT:
Thunderstorms Likely, Some Severe…Low 74, winds W-6
Precip Ch. 70% – Rain Amount .40″

FRIDAY:
Mostly Cloudy, Chance of Showers…High 91, winds W-6
Precip Ch. 30% – Rain Amount .10″