Storm Prediction Center
Scattered showers along with a few rumbles of thunder are likely for the drive to work this morning.
A STORMY START:
A reinforcing cold front will move through the area during the afternoon which will bring rain and possibly some thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center has our area in a *SLIGHT RISK* for severe storms with the main threats being gusty winds and possibly small hail. This will all be dependent on how much instability is in the region this afternoon. Cooler air will move in behind this front but temperatures will still be a bit above seasonal averages. Temperatures will be in the mid 50s for Tuesday before reaching near 60° Wednesday.
STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE LATE WEEK:
Thursday a strong storm system looks to move into the region with a sharp cold front. Strong storms are possible during the day. This front will also cool us down quite a bit for next weekend, late week temperatures in the low 40s during the day and in the 20s overnight, before returning to the mid 40s for next weekend.
Occasional Showers and Thunderstorms…High 64, winds SW-10
Precip Ch. 60% – Rain Amount 0.20″
Showers and Thunderstorms Ending…Low 38, winds SW-5
Precip Ch. 40% – Rain Amount 0.10″
Mostly Sunny and Cooler…High 55, winds SW-9
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING for Christian, Hopkins, McLean, Muhlenberg, and Todd Cos. until 7pm tonight. A HEAT ADVISORY is in effect for the rest of South-Central KY from 11am-6pm tonight. Heat indices will climb into the 105-110° range tomorrow afternoon.
SLIGHT RISK of severe storms beginning this afternoon through tonight for the entire WBKO viewing area. The potential exists for damaging winds, heavy rains and resultant power outages.
We’re off to a mainly clear start with a warm and muggy breeze this morning. We’ll see sunshine with isolated showers possible by late morning.
ONE MORE SCORCHER…
The steamy Summer of 2012 marches on! The mercury approached 100° Wednesday afternoon under plenty of hot sunshine in Bowling Green, with heat indices topping out at 111° at one point. Temperatures and humidities will run quite high another time today before some changes arrive. Expect mostly sunny skies through the early afternoon before some increase in clouds as a cold front moves in from the Midwest. There will be a chance for scattered thunderstorms Thursday evening into the overnight hours. A few storms may reach severe limits, with most of the area highlighted by the Storm Prediction Center in a SLIGHT RISK for storms that may contain locally damaging winds which may result in a number of downed trees and power lines (much like we saw last Thursday).
…THEN A BIT COOLER:
The cold front eases through Friday with a continued chance for scattered showers and storms during the day. It will be a bit cooler behind the system, with highs dropping into the low 90s. The weekend looks quiet with seasonably warm readings and a bit less humidity.
EARLY NEXT WEEK:
Unsettled weather returns Monday afternoon through Wednesday with a chance for scattered showers and storms each day. Highs remain in the lower 90s.
Breezy & Hot, Afternoon Thunderstorms…High 98, winds SW-15
Precip Ch. 50% – Rain Amount .20″
Heat Index: 105-110°
Thunderstorms Likely, Some Severe…Low 74, winds W-6
Precip Ch. 70% – Rain Amount .40″
Mostly Cloudy, Chance of Showers…High 91, winds W-6
Precip Ch. 30% – Rain Amount .10″
The airmass over Kentucky seems to be stabilizing thanks to clouds and an on-going MCS (mesoscale convective system) that’s rolling through parts of Mississippi and Alabama at the noon hour.
With higher stability numbers – despite lots of sunshine – it appears that any storms that fire ahead of a cold front this afternoon should stay under severe limits even though a few could be strong.
A better chance of rain and thunderstorms exists tonight as the cold front moves through the area. There may be some heavy downpours along with lightning and gusty winds but the SPC says any severe weather threat now appears limited or marginal at best.
SLIGHT RISK of severe storms across the WBKO viewing area this afternoon and evening…
Mainly cloudy this morning with a few scattered showers developing west of I-65.
STORMY START TO THE WEEK:
Today will bring partly sunny skies turning mostly cloudy as a cold front moves into the area. Thunderstorms that could be strong to severe are likely this afternoon into the evening with the main threats being hail and gusty winds. The entire viewing area is under a *SLIGHT RISK* of severe weather mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.
After the cold front moves through tonight, cooler air will slide into the region and stay through the end of the 7 day period. A few showers will linger Tuesday morning, but after that skies clear. Daytime highs from Tuesday on will be in the mid 70s with overnight lows in the upper 40s and lower 50s across the area.
Scat’d Showers and Thunderstorms… High 84, winds S-13
Precip Chance 80% – Rain Amount .25″
Scat’d Showers and Thunderstorms…Low 65, winds W-6
Precip Chance 80% – Rain Amount .50″
Morning Showers, then Mostly Cloudy…High 76, winds NW-7
Precip Chance 40% – Rain Amount .10″
The latest update of the SLIGHT RISK area for potential severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening extends the outlook area further east.
While we do have a nice cap (lid of warm air) holding back thunderstorm development right now (as of 11:30am), we’re seeing signs that cap will break in the next few hours allowing rapid initiation of thunderstorms ahead of a cold front. Dewpoints are rising into the low 70s which means there’s plenty of moist air at the surface to feed these storms.
The primary threat for the WBKO viewing area will be the potential for storms to produce damaging winds and large hail. The tornado threat is rather low – less than 2%.
There isn’t a particular time the storms will get going but it should be any time in the next couple of hours…if not sooner.
The National Weather Service anticipates issuing a Severe Thunderstorm Watch shortly for much of the WBKO viewing area.
Check you preparedness plans, turn your NOAA weather radio on, take advantage of our apps and maps at WBKO.com and “know the weather before it knows you!”
SLIGHT RISK of severe storms this afternoon containing potential for damaging winds and large hail
Look for a mainly cloudy sky this morning along with a few widely scattered light rain showers especially east of I-65.
STORMS ROLL BACK IN…
A cloudy sky and scattered showers kept temperatures in check on Thursday. As a cold front moves closer to the region today, we’ll see more clouds along with better rain chances. Any sun that breaks through could help trigger scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. While widespread severe weather is not anticipated, a few storms could reach severe limits, with hail and locally damaging winds being the primary threats (a SLIGHT RISK of severe weather is in place through this evening). Highs will top out in the mid 80s today. Scattered thunderstorms remain possible tonight with warm and humid lows in the 60s.
A frontal boundary close by means a continued chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday. It looks like we’ll get by Sunday with only a few isolated thunderstorms. When it’s not raining, you can expect a mix of sun and clouds both days with warm and humid highs in the mid to upper 80s.
COOLDOWN FOR NEXT WEEK…
The weather pattern remains unsettled through the early part of next week. We’ll stand a better chance for more widespread showers and thunderstorms late Monday into Monday night as a cold front eases through. The system will be slow to move away, so small chances for rain continue into Wednesday before everyone finally dries out Thursday. It will turn much cooler and less humid late in the period, with highs dropping into the 70s and lows falling into the 50s.
P/Sunny, Afternoon Thunderstorms…High 84, winds SW-10
Precip Chance 30% – Rain Amount .25″
Showers and Thunderstorms…Low 67, winds SW-5
Precip Chance 50% – Rain Amount .25″
P/Sunny, Scat’d PM Thunderstorms…High 86, Low 65, winds SW-5
Precip Chance 40% – Rain Amount .20″
Partly Sunny, Ch of Showers…High 87, Low 66, winds SE-6
Precip Chance 30% – Rain Amount .10″
Scattered showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain, lightning and small hail will continue to move through the area this morning.
MORE STORMS TODAY:
After a day that was mainly sunny and warm, strong to severe thunderstorms rolled into Bowling Green and South-Central KY early Monday evening. We’ll have a continued chance for showers and storms into today as another disturbance rides along a front that will stall just north of the Ohio River. It will remain warm and humid with highs reaching the mid 80s. Like Monday, a few storms may be strong to severe with damaging winds and hail.
It will feel more like late July than early May starting Wednesday! High pressure building in will reduce the rain chances Wednesday and Thursday but will allow readings to climb into the upper 80s (perhaps even pushing 90° in spots) those two days.
It stays very warm and rather humid this weekend with just a slight chance each day for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. Highs will ease back into the low 80s by early next week.
Scattered Showers and Thunderstorms…High 84, winds SW-10
Precip Chance: 50% Rain Amount: .20″
Rain Ending, Becoming Partly Cloudy…Low 65, winds S-6
Partly Sunny, Hot and Humid…High 90, winds SW-10
The Storm Prediction Center is keeping a SLIGHT RISK of severe storms this afternoon and evening in parts of the WBKO viewing area.
While this morning’s convective storm complex worked over the atmosphere pretty well, some sunshine has helped the air mass over Southern Kentucky to recover with muggy air. An approaching cold front may help trigger new thunderstorms mainly east of Bowling Green over the Barren River Lake, Green River Lake, Lake Cumberland and Dale Hollow Lake regions.
The primary threat with any thunderstorms this afternoon would be from damaging winds and large hail. And much like this morning, there may be intense lightning and heavy rain as well.
Once the front pushes southward into the Tennessee Valley tonight, the thunderstorm activity should come to an end.
SLIGHT RISK of severe storms producing large hail and damaging winds mainly west of I-65 today…
Partly cloudy skies this morning with the possibility of an isolated shower or thunderstorm. Better chances of showers will come later in the morning toward midday.
STILL WARM, BUT WET AT TIMES:
We ended up tying our all-time record high for Wednesday at 82° (previously set in 1967 and 1990). It will only be slightly cooler today than yesterday as our weather turns more unsettled with a couple of upper air disturbances setting off scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. A few storms may be strong to severe with the capability of producing large hail and damaging wind. More scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible tonight into Friday. Highs will top out in the upper 70s each of the next two days, with mild lows in the upper 50s to near 60°.
ST. PATRICK’S DAY AND SUNDAY:
If you are wishing for the May-like warmth to hang around into the weekend, the luck of the Irish will be with you! Both days will feature a mix of sun and clouds with just slight chances for a few isolated, late-day thunderstorms. We’ll see highs in the upper 70s Saturday with lower 80s expected Sunday.
MORE WARMTH NEXT WEEK:
There’s no end in sight to the unseasonably warm temperatures! High pressure tightens its grip over the region early next week, keeping rain chances very small and keeping readings about 20 degrees above seasonal averages. Highs are forecast to climb into the lower 80s each day, with overnight lows in the 50s.
Scattered Showers and Thunderstorms…High 78, winds SW-10
Precip Chance 50% – Rain Amount .25-.50″
Scattered Showers and Thunderstorms…Low 58, winds SW-4
Precip Chance 50% – Rain Amount .10″
Partly Sunny, Scat’d Thunderstorms…High 78, winds SW-8
Precip Chance 50% – Rain Amount .25-.50″
I hope you have one today…you just might need it.
All of the WBKO viewing area has been upgraded to a HIGH RISK for tornado development sometime after 1-2pm and moving east into the evening hours.
This is NOT a guarantee it will happen, but this means this is the VERY HIGHEST PROBABILITY that it could happen given the atmospheric conditions. After this morning’s thunderstorm activity, our atmosphere is already reloading with dewpoints rising into the 60s, strong winds rushing in and the sun is coming back out…all will work together to fire up the atmosphere for what could be destructive winds, very large hail and significant long-tracking tornadoes.
WHAT CAN YOU DO?
Hopefully, you’ve heeded our call for preparedness. If not, you now have a much smaller window of opportunity before it gets really bad. Go to our Severe Weather Toolkit at WBKO.com on our weather page. You’ll find most everything you need there.
Here are some additional things to keep in mind to help you prepare and that you might want to think of AFTER the storms strike…
YOUR PLAN: In a site built home, if you are in a tornado warning polygon, go to a small room (hall, closet, bathroom) on the lowest floor and near the center of the house, away from windows. Put as many walls between you and the tornado as possible.
If you live in a mobile home, you must get out and go to a more substantial structure.
If you are on the second floor (or higher) of an apartment building, you must go to the lowest floor.
Put a helmet on your kids, and wear one yourself if you can.
HAVE A READINESS PLAN: Possible items to store in your safe place include:
-Flashlights (enough light to see how to crawl from the rubble)
-Extra cell phone batteries or chargers
-Shoes (with hard soles if possible)
-Emergency Contact List
-Document wallet for copies of insurance cards, driver’s license, etc.
-Whistle (to alert emergency workers if you were trapped)
-Personal hygiene kit (toothbrush, soap, comb, etc.)
-Packs of batteries
DO NOT DEPEND ON OUTDOOR WARNING SIRENS AS YOUR ONLY PRIMARY SOURCE FOR TORNADO WARNINGS! Any outdoor siren is designed for people already outdoors to come indoors and find out what the emergency is for. If you can hear a siren in your home it’s usually because you live near one or the atmospheric conditions allow you to hear it. But with a TV and air conditioning, noise from kids or family going…you cannot depend on hearing that clearly.
ALWAYS HAVE MORE THAN ONE WAY TO MONITOR THE WEATHER SHOULD ONE OF THE RESOURCES MALFUNCTION! Yes, things break, phone lines go down, computers crap out, software doesn’t work, batteries go dead, TV stations lose power. This is why you should rely on more than one way to monitor the weather for bulletins.
Turn on your NOAA weather radios and let’s all hope this turns out to be not as bad as advertised.
KNOW THE WEATHER BEFORE IT KNOWS YOU!