A Big Warmup, then A Very Wet Weekend

Dec17radsat

This morning we’re watching a decaying cold front that has produced some light snow flurries and a little mixed precip to areas of the northern Bluegrass but not much else.  Radar and satellite trends indicate what little precipitation is there is fading away fast as it moves southeast.  A sprinkle or flurry is possible near the Bluegrass and Western Kentucky Parkways this morning but temperatures are warm enough that it’s not an issue.

Dec17winds

TODAY’S WEATHER IMPACT: BREEZY WINDS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE.

As this cold front passes today, winds will pick up from the west at 10-15 mph with some higher gusts of 20-25 mph.  This along with a few clouds will keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than Monday with highs expected in the mid 40s.  We will see a mix of clouds and sunshine the rest of today.

Dec17bufkit

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY

We are looking sunny and warm once we get into Wednesday as a high pressure ridge slides east.  This will allow for a more southerly wind flow helping temperatures rise into the low to mid 50s.  As the chart above shows, the average high for this time of year is 47° and we’re likely to see readings rise into the 60s for the final few days of Autumn.  But, you can also look at that chart and see significant changes are coming once we enter the start of Winter and the days leading up to Christmas.

Dec17rain

POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS, HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING BEGINNING FRIDAY

Model guidance is coming into better agreement that the cold front coming in for the weekend (one of the busiest travel weekends of the year) will be a major rain producer.  The front coming in will stall over the region with waves of low pressure riding along the front.  Each “wave” will touch off rounds of heavy rainfall.  The current models are indicating some of the heaviest rain may be expected on Saturday with the potential amounts of 2-3″.  This would cause minor flooding along creeks, rivers and streams and cause some low-water fords/bridges to flood through the weekend and into early next week.

Dec17pwat

Here is another chart showing the “precipitable water” values early Sunday morning and two of the low pressure systems passing right over Southern Kentucky.  With these high values – and the possibility we could see enough convective energy for thunderstorms – we must consider and prepare for what appears to be a sloppy weekend and one that could cause some issues with high water.

The Storm Prediction Center has not outlined a risk area for severe storms here as of this writing but it is certainly possible should we have enough available energy.  However, any forecast of severe storms for our area is merely speculative right now.  We will wait for future model runs to get a better fix on that.  KTWBIKY!

 

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