Christmas Looks Calm and Cold


After a rough and tumble weekend of stormy weather, things are beginning to settle down – and cool down for Southern Kentucky.  Visible satellite shows a few holes opening up allowing some limited sunshine at times through an overcast sky.  The main clearing line is still back into the Missouri bootheel so it may take a while to get ample sunshine in today.  Temperatures are much colder than the record-breaking heat we had on Saturday.


Backing up just a bit to the Saturday severe weather event, there was at least one confirmed tornado touchdown in Taylor County in northern Campbellsville.  The National Weather Service was out Sunday looking at suspect areas and determined an EF-1 rated tornado with estimated winds of 104 mph struck along KY 210 just north of Campbellsville.  However, there was an evident path of straight-line wind damage across a wide berth of South Central Kentucky, specifically from Hart County across Green and Taylor counties.  Cave City was one of the hardest hit from straight-line winds of 70-80 mph (category 1 hurricane strength)!  The picture above was sent in from Rose Rogers in Russellville.


As we talked about before the storm, flooding would be an issue and still is.  Flood Warnings continue along the Green River Basin and will for another couple of days.  The Green River at Woodbury is expected to rise above flood stage tonight which would flood KY 403 and overflow the lock wall.  We will also see minor flooding at Rochester which would likely close (if not already) the Rochester Ferry.  There are also a number of low-water fords on area backroads that will likely flood in the coming days.


So now, on to the Christmas holiday.  Temperature trends are running much colder…and look to stay there for a while.  We should average a high of 46° and a low of 28° this time of year.  But, as you can see from the 7-day temperature trend forecast graph, we’re going to stay chilly.  Tomorrow (Christmas Eve), we will get a reinforced shot of colder air as high pressure moves closer and skies clear.  This will allow overnight lows to bottom out in the teens tonight and Tuesday night.

Now, if we only had some moisture to go with this, we could have a white Christmas but…


…the NAM model shows an upper wave (disturbance) moving through the flow that will clip the Ohio Valley with a little snow but will likely only be a little light rain on the southern end.  In addition, it really doesn’t come far enough south to affect us with maybe additional cloud cover.


The GFS model shows this disturbance even further north.  So, bottom line…it appears we won’t even see a snowflake for Christmas here in Southern Kentucky.  Certainly, should future model guidance suggest a difference in the overall storm track, then “maybe”.  But, it wouldn’t be much.  Possibly a flurry or two.

In any case, we will be here all day tonight and tomorrow as usual with further updates.


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