Assessment: November 17th Snow

In weather, we do a lot of looking forward. A lot.

Now, for some review.

This was Scenario 1: Should an area of low pressure track further south and east and along the Appalachian mountain chain, we stand a better chance of some minor snow accumulation Sunday night into Monday morning.
This was Scenario 1: Should an area of low pressure track further south and east and along the Appalachian mountain chain, we stand a better chance of some minor snow accumulation Sunday night into Monday morning.

We started talking up this event in the middle of last week showing two possible storm track scenarios.

From the official NOAA Weather Prediction Center Archive of the National Forecast Chart from Monday morning, you can see the placement of the low pressure system was near Atlanta, GA.

WPC Monday morning surface map.
WPC Monday morning surface map.

This is very close to where we had the low placed in our “Scenario Two” graphic.

This was Scenario 2: However, if the low tracks further north and west, this would draw in a little more warm air which could put us on the fence between rain and snow which would cut down on snow totals.
This was Scenario 2: However, if the low tracks further north and west, this would draw in a little more warm air which could put us on the fence between rain and snow which would cut down on snow totals.

When we put out the “first call” on possible snowfall amounts Friday night, this was the map Shane Holinde posted. At this point, we had not yet decided which scenario would play out but was leaning toward “Scenario One”. That’s the track that would draw down enough cold air to see somewhat higher snow totals.

Posted at 10:45pm Friday, November 14th.
Posted at 10:45pm Friday, November 14th.

As we grew closer to the arrival of the system, we updated the projected snowfall map by making only minor adjustments on Saturday but keeping overall amounts low for Southern Kentucky. This was the time when we decided the track of the low pressure system was going to mirror that of “Scenario Two” – a little further north than in the first scenario.

Updated projected snowfall forecast posted at 11am Saturday.
Updated projected snowfall forecast posted at 11am Saturday.

Our final update before the storm arrived was made Sunday afternoon at 4pm and this is the forecast we held with decided was our “best guess” based on model data, temperature profiles and generally, how the storm was “behaving”. This was solely based on “Scenario Two” with the low pressure system tracking near Atlanta by Monday morning.

Projected snowfall updated Sunday afternoon at 4pm.
Projected snowfall updated Sunday afternoon at 4pm.

The National Weather Service in Louisville posted their assessment of snowfall across their county warning area Monday afternoon based on reports received.

Official NWS Louisville total snowfall map based on actual reports.
Official NWS Louisville total snowfall map based on actual reports.

Overall, we ended up with decent placement of the storm and predicted snow amounts – even ending up a bit conservative with amounts further north and west where mesobanding took place.

This is an honest review in full disclosure. It’s not posted to get pats on the back or reprimands. In the social media world we live in, there’s so much hyped content that users aren’t really sure whom to trust. We’re not going to always be right with the forecast but we will always be honest with our assessment. Looking back at the details helps us do a better job for you.

Chris

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